Million dollar Rolex at the Geneva Watch Auctions, read my analysis now...

[Philipp]

3 of the top lots in my hand which fetched almost 5.5 million swiss francs!! Below PPC’s ref 1463 went for 1.85 million!



My earlier predictions for the November 2015 Geneva Watch Auctions where close to spot on. Where I was wrong, the achieved results where even higher. The trend to pay record prices for rare top quality only continues. Then another phenomenon has chanced the market when we compare it with some 5-10 years ago. Due to the improved knowledge of the individual collectors and the possibility to bid online and see whats going on from their lazy chair, we now see many buyers act on their own, cutting off the dealer provision paid in the past.

The discussions on social media helps the modern collector to act independently. In specific Instagram has become extremely powerful and very helpful for every watch collector. IG has become a strong tool to connect buyer & seller and so I noticed that many dealers have become spectators instead of successful bidders. They definitely do not spend as much as during the Geneva watch auctions then they used to do in the past. A trend that will only continue in my believe….





This edition of the Geneva Watch Auctions had again many “known” watches for sale and hardly any fresh finds. As I said before, the market has to realize that we’ve come to a point where new discoveries, fresh barn finds will only happen once in a while. That somebody who gets it, doesn’t need a auction house anymore to sell it successfully for the highest price for him. Upload it to your IG account and the offers will come in automatically. With other words the watch market will hardly grow in quantity as almost everything has been found and everybody should realize that what is known to date, is about what has been left over.

So far Phillips had again the rarest examples for sale, which achieved exceptional prices. But we have to ask ourselves, how long will it be possible for the auction houses to find collectors to sell their rare watches now that the market clearly shows us that keeping great original condition brings much more redement then selling it. And if you sell successfully, what you gonna do with the money I hear a lot as there’s hardly anything interesting in the free market to buy back…



Those that say there where bargains, are blind as there where none. Those watches that sold low, where not worth buying. Those that where interesting went double, triple or even 10 times the estimate. All dealers where ready to spend their cash. You see, what I ask myself while writing this is, what do all the dealers do now with their corporate money they used to spend during the auctions? Off course I see them buy but then its much less then I’ve seen before. Many lots sold nowadays go directly to the phone bidders or even to the online bidder. The essence to sell their best watches has become hardly interesting for most professionals as it’s still better for them to sit on those interesting pieces then offer it for sale now.



The vintage watch market is still growing as I noticed many more Asian and Middle East buyers in Geneva. The general “problem” what we see in the collecting world is that everybody wants to own the best, pushing prices even further. All over the results where strong again, hardly any watch disappointed and for instance a simple Nina Rindt Universal sold for nearly 30K and off the market offers are heading to 50K already, which is imho a bit crazy…



I will not comment on the rumor(s) some big buyer(s) are having problem(s) settling their account(s) as I still saw him/ them bidding nor will I elaborate about the fact that auction houses still guarantee minimum sale prices for the top lots for their clients as that might be part of their marketing budget. Then, apparently the reason why the black military dialed Patek Philippe Ref 2497 suddenly and abruptly got canceled right before it came up is that Ethiopian- Americans together with Haile Selassies grandson successfully blocked the Christie’s sale because they believe the PPC was plundered from Selassies estate after a military coupe in 1975. Was this the last time we’ve seen it in public? Only the future can tell us… Enjoy my report! Thanks my dear friends!



Read all about it over here:

http://rolexpassionreport.com/18762/...s-my-analysis/

Greetings Philipp

[red.earth]

Thanks Philipp. I'm clearly not in the same mental space as those willing to spend obscene amounts on old watches - seems crazy to me!

[jfmiii]

amazing write up as usual Philip. would love to hear your thoughts on lot 103....the '67 1675....that sold for CHF 37k. still cannot comprehend how that watch sold for as much as it did.

[Philipp]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

amazing write up as usual Philip. would love to hear your thoughts on lot 103....the '67 1675....that sold for CHF 37k. still cannot comprehend how that watch sold for as much as it did.

It's due to the quality, "Preserved in nearly unworn condition, the deployant clasp features an engraving from the original owner reading “B.K.”. The Oyster riveted bracelet appears to be in its original state, making it one of the finest examples of this reference to appear on the market"

and off course the fact very rich people with little time attent the auctions in geneva and just want to buy. If thats 2, then prices can be much higher then in regular market but again I want to emphasize that real quality is worth MUCH more then average quality, something im telling since many years already

[rootbeer7]

great read, thank you

[jban5]

I can see how people who have the resources and desire can spend what is seen as unreasonable amounts on items that are extremely low in availability.

By now almost 60 years after it was manufactured how many of the many fall into the category of being all original in parts and condition?

This leads to a question, how correct are the descriptions.

"disclaimer" I am not making any insinuations, nor do I profess to have the expertise to do so.

For example, I studied lot 291 Rolex GMT-Master 6542 ca. 1959. It sold for CHF 65,000
One almost identical to it sold at Christies 2-3 years ago for 200,000 more than that.

In studying the information on line in the description and photograph of the Phillips example they show a bakelite bezel and a one line crown. Either of these watches could have left Rolex with the newer bezel insert which I take it to have come into use starting in 1957. So, what authority can state whether it is in the original configuration?

Do any of the auction houses have someone who is a recognized authority that can offer irrefutable pronouncement/documentation of the original state and present one to be the same?

[nick c]

Wow great report thanks for sharing

[JohnnyNoDate]

What are your thoughts on vintages in "mismatched" condition? I.e.: a clean case and dial but then attached to a flimsy bracelet.

I understand the market may finally have reached a point where there just aren't enough new pieces, especially in all original condition.

With all the "catalog" style vintages popping up, do you think we may see a trend towards lesser quality but absolutely all original condition watches. I.e.: "honest" condition with matching scratched cases and bezels, stained lume, over polished lugs?

Or are perfectly executed vintages made from spare parts the future?

[Philipp]

Originally Posted by jban5

I can see how people who have the resources and desire can spend what is seen as unreasonable amounts on items that are extremely low in availability.

By now almost 60 years after it was manufactured how many of the many fall into the category of being all original in parts and condition?

This leads to a question, how correct are the descriptions.

"disclaimer" I am not making any insinuations, nor do I profess to have the expertise to do so.

For example, I studied lot 291 Rolex GMT-Master 6542 ca. 1959. It sold for CHF 65,000
One almost identical to it sold at Christies 2-3 years ago for 200,000 more than that.

In studying the information on line in the description and photograph of the Phillips example they show a bakelite bezel and a one line crown. Either of these watches could have left Rolex with the newer bezel insert which I take it to have come into use starting in 1957. So, what authority can state whether it is in the original configuration?

Do any of the auction houses have someone who is a recognized authority that can offer irrefutable pronouncement/documentation of the original state and present one to be the same?

About your question, off course nobody can state 100 % sure as we don't have a time machine going back for us to check... But then lot's of experience tells you that the parts do fit together and have the all over matching patina, something I try to explain in my buyers guide:

http://rolexpassionreport.com/14962/...-buyers-guide/

[Philipp]

Originally Posted by JohnnyNoDate

What are your thoughts on vintages in "mismatched" condition? I.e.: a clean case and dial but then attached to a flimsy bracelet.

I understand the market may finally have reached a point where there just aren't enough new pieces, especially in all original condition.

With all the "catalog" style vintages popping up, do you think we may see a trend towards lesser quality but absolutely all original condition watches. I.e.: "honest" condition with matching scratched cases and bezels, stained lume, over polished lugs?

Or are perfectly executed vintages made from spare parts the future?

Personally I think the vintage rolex buyer are getting much more professional as they used to be. First due to the fact the prices have gone up to amount of money where you need to be sure and double check before you buy. Secondly social media helps, in specific IG as a great tool to see, understand and learn more about all necessary details.

Fakes will only become better in the future therefor will the history / provenance of a watch become more and more important. You have to proof the condition.

[Dries]

Great report thanks for sharing.

[dcash0615]

Great article. Really enjoyed reading.

[Robbyvm]

Great read Phillip !

[Philipp]

I just updated my Geneva Auction Predictions with the actual sale results:

http://rolexpassionreport.com/18588/...a-blast-again/

[Daytonaman799]

Great write up. You are spot on when it comes to quality vs price. I have watched from the sideline the rise of 6263's and 6265's where the quality has gone down bec they are getting older and getting worn while prices continue to rise. I desperately want one but at the same time have a hard time finding one at what i thought was the right price. You were also spot on in that there were NO bargains. The auctions now appear to be the "retail' venue and you stand a better chance of doing better in a private transaction.

[Watchflair]

Thanks for sharing! Nice read ~