Will we see better deals on Rolexes now... or in early 2009?

[Jason Seahorn]

What do you think?

Cheers!

[Rolexitis]

I already see them in my area. I was offered 15% discounts on models I looked at this past week without even asking for it. First time I've ever been offered without asking BTW that was for SS and Gold models...

[herfdude]

I think deals on Rolex watches will only get better at least until there are some strong signs of economic improvement or until AD's see some serious reduction in their Rolex inventories.

Both the AD's I deal with readily recognize the economic conditions right now and would rather discount their Rolexes and make a smaller profit than have their inventories continue to grow.........

[Whiskey]

You'll see better deals on Rolex around February or April 2009.

Mass company layoffs had only started occuring in October. When you get laid off, depending on how long you worked at that particular firm, you get severance. After severance, you start to collect unemployment.

I don't think the full brunt of this crisis has been felt by retail yet.

So far, the brunt has been felt in the financial industry what with all the banks and service provider's laying off typically 10% of their workforce. Those (like myself), who managed to avoid the first round are now nervous that there may be a second round after the first quarter of 2009. As such, more or less everyone is hedging that the day may come that you'll be one of those cut in the 2nd phase, so you spend less and start saving more so that if you do get cut, you can at least afford to provide for yourself until hopefully things get better by early 2010.

The reason you see so many sales now before Christmas is because retailer's know that not everyone is out of work yet so people have money to spend. The second reason is because it's Christmas coming up, people will be expected to buy gifts, so retailer's are fighting over who will get your money this year. The last reason is after the Christmas holidays, there's really no reason to spend. Retailer's know this and are trying to sell now because there won't be anyone to sell to next year.

By the end of the 1st quarter of 2009, peoples severance will have run out and if they're lucky, their unemployment may be sufficient enough to survive on, but not to buy luxury goods.

The big reason for the US economy meltdown was that people were spending money that they didn't have, and in most cases, the bank was handing out money that never existed. Think about it. When someone would apply for a car-loan, the bank would give them a line of credit. The individual would then use this to make a payment to the dealership through a bank-draft which would then put the "loan-figure" into the bank account of the dealership. Notice, no real money ever exchanges hands. It's all artificial money we're dealing with here.

If you have any doubt, to those here who have a lot of money, try walking into the bank and asking for a $100,000 cash-withdrawal in $100 denominations and watch how the bank manager will look funny at you. Why will they look funny at you? Because they don't have that kind of money. In fact, for a withdrawal of this nature they'll probably ask you 20 questions about why you want to withdraw so much money. Then they'll have to prepare an order which may take 3 business days so that they can get that kind of currency together. How do I know this? When I went to the bank to withdraw cash from the account for my Rolex watch, they told me they'd need 48 hours in order to put together an order for $5800 cash in $100 bills. Pathetic to say the least.

All those Rolex watches bought out there were mostly paid with credit cards of which most have not paid the balance on. If you were to take all the credit-card debt out there in the USA and divide it by the total US population, you can attribute each man, woman and child carrying a $10,000 balance on their cards. This excludes all loans and mortgages. I'm only talking about credit cards.

Some here will chime in that the rich to whom the watches are aimed at will not be affected. The problem with this theory is that the true "rich" only represent 5% of American society and this 5% won't be buying a Rolex watch every week to replace those in the middle-class who were buying when they had a job.

With regards to my point of the crisis not reaching the bottom yet, has to do with regards to the auto-industry. There still is no solid bail-out plan and if one does come about, expect major restructuring and massive layoffs in Q1 2009. I'm of the opinion that what will happen is that the Big 3 will call for bankruptcy protection. The reason why is so that they can discharge all of the union-concession that were made with UAW and CAW in prior years. Then they will start the process of re-hiring line-workers at a more reasonable and competitive wage of say $15 an hour. Employees that were laid off/fired will not be welcomed back.

My advise. Don't buy a Rolex or a car or furniture or a house now. Next year will be the time to do it.

[teo]

If you like something and its at a good price, go and get it. Life is too short to enjoy a good time piece. Buy it, we never know will we live again tomorrow. If everybody wait wait and wait don't spend economy will eventually collapse and more layoff will be seen.

[bodybump]

Originally Posted by Jason Seahorn

What do you think?

Cheers!

Oh yeah Jason..you will be seeing more deals even after christmas...they will try to sell their watches as much as possible....

[DS/B MINI S]

Originally Posted by Whiskey

When I went to the bank to withdraw cash from the account for my Rolex watch, they told me they'd need 48 hours in order to put together an order for $5800 cash in $100 bills. Pathetic to say the least.

You might want to change banks. In Oct 07 it took me about 3 minutes to withdraw 12k (cash-large bills)from our savings account.

[jbjenkins]

October 2009 will be the time to buy any luxury good you are looking for.

[JJ Irani]

I got the deal of a lifetime on this baby last Sunday......but then I just happened to be in the right place at the right time!!

[buz-lh]

I don't think I would want my money in a bank that took three days to raise 5k in cash. I've walked in my small branch and cashed much larger checks than that with no questions asked. Time to change banks Whiskey.

[Jason Seahorn]

Originally Posted by Whiskey

You'll see better deals on Rolex around February or April 2009.

Mass company layoffs had only started occuring in October. When you get laid off, depending on how long you worked at that particular firm, you get severance. After severance, you start to collect unemployment.

I don't think the full brunt of this crisis has been felt by retail yet.

So far, the brunt has been felt in the financial industry what with all the banks and service provider's laying off typically 10% of their workforce. Those (like myself), who managed to avoid the first round are now nervous that there may be a second round after the first quarter of 2009. As such, more or less everyone is hedging that the day may come that you'll be one of those cut in the 2nd phase, so you spend less and start saving more so that if you do get cut, you can at least afford to provide for yourself until hopefully things get better by early 2010.

The reason you see so many sales now before Christmas is because retailer's know that not everyone is out of work yet so people have money to spend. The second reason is because it's Christmas coming up, people will be expected to buy gifts, so retailer's are fighting over who will get your money this year. The last reason is after the Christmas holidays, there's really no reason to spend. Retailer's know this and are trying to sell now because there won't be anyone to sell to next year.

By the end of the 1st quarter of 2009, peoples severance will have run out and if they're lucky, their unemployment may be sufficient enough to survive on, but not to buy luxury goods.

The big reason for the US economy meltdown was that people were spending money that they didn't have, and in most cases, the bank was handing out money that never existed. Think about it. When someone would apply for a car-loan, the bank would give them a line of credit. The individual would then use this to make a payment to the dealership through a bank-draft which would then put the "loan-figure" into the bank account of the dealership. Notice, no real money ever exchanges hands. It's all artificial money we're dealing with here.

If you have any doubt, to those here who have a lot of money, try walking into the bank and asking for a $100,000 cash-withdrawal in $100 denominations and watch how the bank manager will look funny at you. Why will they look funny at you? Because they don't have that kind of money. In fact, for a withdrawal of this nature they'll probably ask you 20 questions about why you want to withdraw so much money. Then they'll have to prepare an order which may take 3 business days so that they can get that kind of currency together. How do I know this? When I went to the bank to withdraw cash from the account for my Rolex watch, they told me they'd need 48 hours in order to put together an order for $5800 cash in $100 bills. Pathetic to say the least.

All those Rolex watches bought out there were mostly paid with credit cards of which most have not paid the balance on. If you were to take all the credit-card debt out there in the USA and divide it by the total US population, you can attribute each man, woman and child carrying a $10,000 balance on their cards. This excludes all loans and mortgages. I'm only talking about credit cards.

Some here will chime in that the rich to whom the watches are aimed at will not be affected. The problem with this theory is that the true "rich" only represent 5% of American society and this 5% won't be buying a Rolex watch every week to replace those in the middle-class who were buying when they had a job.

With regards to my point of the crisis not reaching the bottom yet, has to do with regards to the auto-industry. There still is no solid bail-out plan and if one does come about, expect major restructuring and massive layoffs in Q1 2009. I'm of the opinion that what will happen is that the Big 3 will call for bankruptcy protection. The reason why is so that they can discharge all of the union-concession that were made with UAW and CAW in prior years. Then they will start the process of re-hiring line-workers at a more reasonable and competitive wage of say $15 an hour. Employees that were laid off/fired will not be welcomed back.

My advise. Don't buy a Rolex or a car or furniture or a house now. Next year will be the time to do it.

WOW GREAT analysis!

[Whiskey]

Originally Posted by buz-lh

I don't think I would want my money in a bank that took three days to raise 5k in cash. I've walked in my small branch and cashed much larger checks than that with no questions asked. Time to change banks Whiskey.

I hear you on this, however, I'm in Canada. Different banking system entirely!

I'll give you another example of how f$%ked up Canadian banking is.

There's no difference between cashing a cheque, a money-order, a certified-cheque, or a bank-draft. All three will require some kind of holding period by the bank (depending on the amount on the instrument).

In my case, I deposited a $10,000 certified-cheque a couple years ago and the bank wouldn't release the funds for 3 days. I once received a $2000 money-order from someone in the US. The bank wouldn't release the funds for 30-days!!!

I confronted the bank manager about the $10,000 certified cheque I just deposited and the 3-day holding period. I asked what's the point of getting a cheque certified if you're just going to hold the funds anyways? The reason for getting it certified is so that the cheque is "liquid" immediately on deposit. All she could say was it was new anti-terrorist guidelines. BS!

Seems like the only way to by-pass all this crap is to send out money-wires.

[082013]

Originally Posted by Whiskey

All those Rolex watches bought out there were mostly paid with credit cards of which most have not paid the balance on.

There was a thread on here recently where most posters replied to the contrary. If the thread was to be believed, most didn't carry a credit card balance.

[Jason888]

Whiskey, I agree with a few other members on here. I think you need to change who you bank with. I would of asked to see the supervisor as that is quite absurd, to be told to wait two days.

Back to the original question though the more the US economy dips, AD's will be more open and "flexible" to discounting. It's already started to become a buyers market. The trend shall continue.

With the recent Rolex RRP increases and the current economic climate, buying a new Rolex has become less "affordable" to the mainstream. Even people with money to burn are re-evaluating their spending habits in general (eg. Russian millionaires/billionaires).

From a global viewpoint, alot of foreign countries local currency has fallen by a substantial amount. In my region, South Korea and Australia are prime examples. I have read newspaper articles citing in some Eastern European countries, people are buying Rolex's ( and treating it as a commodity) due to local currency falling at dramatic rates and lack of gold to buy.

Bottom line is if you are cashed up or in a "good" financial position, it's a good time period to buy as you are in a better position to negotiate a better deal. Should be even better next year depending on the level of price increases Rolex intend to implement.

[Spark]

I agree with deals will be out there, they will have to be for retailers to survive not in just luxury goods either.
Day to day goods although necessary will be discounted to a degree to get your custom.

I do wonder though if the second price increase this year by Rolex was actually for this exact reason.
Whatever the price of the watches, buyers at some point would expect a discount or at least try to get a discount with the way retail has slowed it is human nature.
The economic slide was in it's first phase when Rolex introduced the second increase, did they do this to safeguard both theirs and their AD's profit margins??
I have had clients in the past where you know they will haggle, so you slap 15% on top so you can give them a discount when they haggle and sometimes you can even get a bit more profit if they stop haggling at 10%.
Did Rolex have this in mind on price rise No 2?
Just a thought

[Trurolexer]

Buy now, if you have chance to buy one. You don't really know what happening in the future.