16610 a good "investment" - WWYD?

[joespeed29]

Hey guys and gals, first off I'm new here . So thanks for letting me join the forum! I look forward to learning and contributing what little i can.

I have an opportunity to pick up a 16610 at a very attractive price. I already wear a GMT daily but am looking at this as more of an opportunity given the relative liquidity of Subs. This is a no-frills, as basic as they come aka a "justa" submariner. No box, no papers. u-serial, swiss only dial, holes, recently serviced so it looks brand new.

Knowing there is no crystal ball, I am inclined to pick this up and sit on it for a year or two

Question is, WWYD...catch and release in a year+? or leave and let live?

Looking forward to your opinions cause we know, nobody can predict but we all have opinions!

Pic of said watch

Question- the lume appears to be luminova... I recall some u-serial "swiss only" dials had luminova?
Is period correct in your opinion?

TIA

[Hamstur]

If primary objective is "investment" then put the money into an investment ... consumer goods should always be treated as "expenses" and "consumption"

If your objective is to enjoy the hell out of a pre-Maxi pre-ceramic Sub, then buy it and enjoy it.

[Onikage]

Looks good. Yup SWISS only ran from 98 to 2000 introducing Luminova. Why the extra tritium bezel? Forget investment - you haven't lost your money is how to look at a 16610.

[RolexComplex]

Buy the watch if you love it, not as an investment. If your horizon is 1-2 years, you’d do better with soy bean futures.

[FinWatch]

Originally Posted by Hamstur

If primary objective is "investment" then put the money into an investment ... consumer goods should always be treated as "expenses" and "consumption"

If your objective is to enjoy the hell out of a pre-Maxi pre-ceramic Sub, then buy it and enjoy it.

I slightly disagree. There are some watches that can be aswell investments.
For example in my case:
I have been slightly restless with my watches in the past weeks. It is very hard for me to know if I truly like the watch if I have not been wearing it for a few weeks. So I buy a watch, wear it for some time and if that is not the watch for me—I sell it. For the last one month I have sold two watches and I earned 2k in euros for selling them. Their value had raised. It all depends which models they are? It is actually quite similar process like investing in stocks: you have to do your homework and know where you are putting your money.
I know that in these forums there are plenty of people making very black and white statements that watches are never investments. It is not true, if you rely on facts. For example:
- I earned 2k in one month by selling the watches that I decided not to keep (better investment than my stocks at the moment)
- Rolex Kermit Flat 4: the value has tripled in 8 years and still going up
- Hulk (which I will get in a few weeks): you can buy it for 8,5k in euros from AD, and the value is at the monent 10,5k in euros
Watches can be investment, but ofcourse there are plenty of risks—as in every investment.
I just happen to love watches; wearing for the love of the watch and investing can walk together hand in hand.
It is never that black and white.



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[dmash]

Catch and release in 1-2 years? How does that work from an investment standpoint? You’re buying (more than likely) the top of the market right now? So if you’re keen on losing money, sure, it’s a great ‘investment’.

[Onikage]

Originally Posted by FinWatch

I slightly disagree. There are some watches that can be aswell investments.
For example in my case:
I have been slightly restless with my watches in the past weeks. It is very hard for me to know if I truly like the watch if I have not been wearing it for a few weeks. So I buy a watch, wear it for some time and if that is not the watch for me—I sell it. For the last one month I have sold two watches and I earned 2k in euros for selling them. Their value had raised. It all depends which models they are? It is actually quite similar process like investing in stocks: you have to do your homework and know where you are putting your money.
I know that in these forums there are plenty of people making very black and white statements that watches are never investments. It is not true, if you rely on facts. For example:
- I earned 2k in one month by selling the watches that I decided not to keep (better investment than my stocks at the moment)
- Rolex Kermit Flat 4: the value has tripled in 8 years and still going up
- Hulk (which I will get in a few weeks): you can buy it for 8,5k in euros from AD, and the value is at the monent 10,5k in euros
Watches can be investment, but ofcourse there are plenty of risks—as in every investment.
I just happen to love watches; wearing for the love of the watch and investing can walk togerher hand in hand.
It is never that black and white.



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And you're just the type of person enthusiasts aren't best pleased with.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Onikage

And you're just the type of person enthusiasts aren't best pleased with.

People who have never bought and sold watches in their lives are coming to the watch market in the past few months, and have fueled some of the shortage/higher prices. I look forward to their ‘investments’ getting wrecked. That’s usually a sign anyways the trend will be exiting soon, when Average Joe starts thinking he can make a quick buck.

[FinWatch]

Originally Posted by Onikage

And you're just the type of person enthusiasts aren't best pleased with.

Hopefully it will get better...


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[Andad]

[FinWatch]

Originally Posted by dmash

People who have never bought and sold watches in their lives are coming to the watch market in the past few months, and have fueled some of the shortage/higher prices. I look forward to their ‘investments’ getting wrecked. That’s usually a sign anyways the trend will be exiting soon, when Average Joe starts thinking he can make a quick buck.

Yeah... I hope all the best for Average Joes and for everyone! Hopefully people are enjoying their watches and hopefully their watches will turnout to be great investments aswell!


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[Trailblazer]

Its good to guess but the appreciation in value is always a bonus imo.

16610 has been discontinued for quite awhile now and no sure how much higher it will go or will it increase at all.

I would own it for the pleasure and not on a hope it will make me money.

[Onikage]

He must have got the call for a BLRO.

[Hamstur]

Originally Posted by FinWatch

I slightly disagree. There are some watches that can be aswell investments.
For example in my case:
I have been slightly restless with my watches in the past weeks. It is very hard for me to know if I truly like the watch if I have not been wearing it for a few weeks. So I buy a watch, wear it for some time and if that is not the watch for me—I sell it. For the last one month I have sold two watches and I earned 2k in euros for selling them. Their value had raised. It all depends which models they are? It is actually quite similar process like investing in stocks: you have to do your homework and know where you are putting your money.
I know that in these forums there are plenty of people making very black and white statements that watches are never investments. It is not true, if you rely on facts. For example:
- I earned 2k in one month by selling the watches that I decided not to keep (better investment than my stocks at the moment)
- Rolex Kermit Flat 4: the value has tripled in 8 years and still going up
- Hulk (which I will get in a few weeks): you can buy it for 8,5k in euros from AD, and the value is at the monent 10,5k in euros
Watches can be investment, but ofcourse there are plenty of risks—as in every investment.
I just happen to love watches; wearing for the love of the watch and investing can walk together hand in hand.
It is never that black and white.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I understand what you mean. I've made $ buying and selling stuff because I choose to experience ownership and usage, vs be a guy who reads a bunch of other people's opinions and try to pass it for personal experience. I can tell you're the same -- and we share the same practical & pragmatic approach which another replier mentioend above: by choosing pieces you won't lose money on except maybe shipping cost at most.

My main point is OP really is, luxury goods are to be enjoyed, so be sure you're gonna enjoy the piece first and don't buy something you won't lose money on if there's no actual interest. At least from experience in other high end hobbies, buying schlock just to try it has had the effect or detracting from the hobby, cause then having to dump if off can quickly develop to feel like a hassle and chore.

If buying and selling stuff is the hobby, it's a different story but heck, my friend makes quite a lot of side $ going to estate sales to buy and flip stuff. His words and sorry they are a bit crude and creepy but he says he has "just as much fun digging through dead people's stuff ad he does making money off it."

[FinWatch]

Originally Posted by Hamstur

I understand what you mean. I've made $ buying and selling stuff because I choose to experience ownership and usage, vs be a guy who reads a bunch of other people's opinions and try to pass it for personal experience. I can tell you're the same -- and we share the same practical & pragmatic approach which another replier mentioend above: by choosing pieces you won't lose money on except maybe shipping cost at most.



My main point is OP really is, luxury goods are to be enjoyed, so be sure you're gonna enjoy the piece first and don't buy something you won't lose money on if there's no actual interest. At least from experience in other high end hobbies, buying schlock just to try it has had the effect or detracting from the hobby, cause then having to dump if off can quickly develop to feel like a hassle and chore.



If buying and selling stuff is the hobby, it's a different story but heck, my friend makes quite a lot of side $ going to estate sales to buy and flip stuff. His words and sorry they are a bit crude and creepy but he says he has "just as much fun digging through dead people's stuff ad he does making money off it."

I feel you, excellent points&thoughts!

Buying&selling to make a living is a whole different thing. Professionalism is what it is called.

And the great wisdom what has been said about investing overall:
If you are ready to loose all of your money, so that it won’t bother you, then you are on the right track. Be ready to loose everything. Investing is always risky.

There is no easy money nor easy wins.

If you don’t love watches, what is the point then anyway?


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by joespeed29

I have an opportunity to pick up a 16610 at a very attractive price.

Knowing there is no crystal ball, I am inclined to pick this up and sit on it for a year or two

Question is, WWYD...catch and release in a year+? or leave and let live?

Do you plan to sell it after a year?
What is your expected rate of return?
What other uses do you have for the capital?

[joespeed29]

thank you all for the input.

re: purchasing at top of market, without getting into specifics, i can get it for a couple hundred below 6K....

I'm not a watch buyer/seller but always looking for an opportunity to make a smart decision. I have investments elsewhere, this is not that.

re: opportunity cost of capital, thats a good point, this is part of some money i have set aside to purchase my first 911 in a few years 3+....

One point above that stood out was , this watch has been out of production for years and nothing has really changed.. so there is no real catalyst for it to go up/down err..maybe just hold its value

I really do appreciate all the input and welcome more.

[DocHorton]

No box, no papers....not a good one to depend on for investment. Subs that have no accessories are going to be the bottom of the barrel on value. That doesn't mean you can't make money on it, but it is going to be less desirable than a complete set and bring less money.

[Justinmg]

Originally Posted by dmash

Catch and release in 1-2 years? How does that work from an investment standpoint? You’re buying (more than likely) the top of the market right now? So if you’re keen on losing money, sure, it’s a great ‘investment’.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by joespeed29

thank you all for the input.

re: purchasing at top of market, without getting into specifics, i can get it for a couple hundred below 6K....

I'm not a watch buyer/seller but always looking for an opportunity to make a smart decision. I have investments elsewhere, this is not that.

re: opportunity cost of capital, thats a good point, this is part of some money i have set aside to purchase my first 911 in a few years 3+....

One point above that stood out was , this watch has been out of production for years and nothing has really changed.. so there is no real catalyst for it to go up/down err..maybe just hold its value

I really do appreciate all the input and welcome more.

Given the fact that you are not talking about wearing the watch in your response I say find other things to invest in.

Buy watches to own, wear and enjoy!

[joespeed29]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Given the fact that you are not talking about wearing the watch in your response I say find other things to invest in.

Buy watches to own, wear and enjoy!

thats a fair point..

i did just realize i could throw a LV bezel on it and thats probably as close as I'll get to owning a kermit...

is that sacrilegious?

[MinMay]

If you feel that you want to park your money for 30 years to see some appreciation, then go for it. In the end, it's your decision...

[ejj]

This watch is the safest buy as far as resale. So--watch market drops, this drops less.

[droptopman]

Welcome to the forum. That is a nice example. Not sure about an investment, but I think just about anyone would enjoy wearing that watch. At some point the market will stabilize and may even drop. A 5 digit Sub can be a nice way to park some money and enjoy wearing and usually sell for what you paid, but not really an investment.

[strafer_kid]

Originally Posted by droptopman

Welcome to the forum. That is a nice example. Not sure about an investment, but I think just about anyone would enjoy wearing that watch. At some point the market will stabilize and may even drop. A 5 digit Sub can be a nice way to park some money and enjoy wearing and usually sell for what you paid, but not really an investment.

Well put .....wear it and enjoy it!

[joespeed29]

Originally Posted by droptopman

Welcome to the forum. That is a nice example. Not sure about an investment, but I think just about anyone would enjoy wearing that watch. At some point the market will stabilize and may even drop. A 5 digit Sub can be a nice way to park some money and enjoy wearing and usually sell for what you paid, but not really an investment.

thank you - THIS is why i joined and stopped lurking!

i really appreciate the insight from you all

[J!m]

Maybe another model for "investment" purposes (?) but they made like a Brazilian 16610's, so there will ALWAYS be a beter,cheaper, older, newer, whatever a buyer is looking for 16610.

No watch is a good investment. In my opinion, the 16610 is the worst sub to choose as an "investment".

Heck, a 1668000 would be about the same money and they made VERY FEW of them. Even a 16800 would be a better choice.

"Invest" elsewhere. Buy watches because you love them.

[superdog]

Be careful of capital gains.

[joespeed29]

Originally Posted by J!m

Maybe another model for "investment" purposes (?) but they made like a Brazilian 16610's, so there will ALWAYS be a beter,cheaper, older, newer, whatever a buyer is looking for 16610.

No watch is a good investment. In my opinion, the 16610 is the worst sub to choose as an "investment".

Heck, a 1668000 would be about the same money and they made VERY FEW of them. Even a 16800 would be a better choice.

"Invest" elsewhere. Buy watches because you love them.

lmfao glad to hear someone else use the "brazilian" as a unit of measurement aside from myself.. point taken and noted

[Seibei]

No box and papers = poor investment.