Another "My AD Said" On Current SS Supply

[ALF61]

He is actually a fairly credible guy. I was first in line for the BLRO which he received and I picked up in October. He offered me a Batman in late 2017 which I declined wanting to wait for the BLRO and he said not to worry, he always received one every four months or so so I would get the next one. That never happenned he did not get any in 2018. So now he got his last order and was surprised to find NONE of the SS orders, though he did get some TT.

What impacted me the most is he issued me a fair warning that things in 2019 were going to be the tightest we have ever seen, even more than 2017 and 2018. He told me to consider myself lucky to have the BLRO (to which I agreed), as he thought he would not be receiving any during the year.

I feel ADs now are better qualified than ever to sort of predict what will happen in the near future. As I understand, they talk to a rep in the area who is very well versed on orders and fulfillments. Obviously this feedback is what I am getting now.

My two cents on SS supply.

[tyler1980]

not sure i believe the first BLRO came in october unless its an AD way, way, way down the priority list for distribution. Because he said you were first, and October is when you got it i would tend to take his comments with a grain of salt.

There is an incentive for an AD to say they are not getting any in order to shift the blame vs saying we have a few more bigger spenders than you as then you get mad and the relationship might be ruined.

[Robertolewis]

I got the same talk from my guy who has always been fair and pretty accurate. He said, if you sell pieces, you better get good money because he will not be able to get them again any time soon...
For what it is worth and judging by his display case and the dealers around Philly, I have no reason to not believe him.

[ArtNouveau]

I’m sorry but not believing the first BLRO in October story, or even more so the no BLNR’s for 2018. If he’s really getting that little inventory, I’m surprised he’s still an AD.

PS: you were waiting for the BLRO in late 2017 when it wasn’t announced until March 2018?

[Paul_I]

I think this is an accurate summary of what I have heard as well. I personally don’t believe in a master strategy or conspiracy, just unprecedented global demand.

[DoctorA]

Only Rolex knows!!

[Paul_I]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

I’m sorry but not believing the first BLRO in October story, or even more so the no BLNR’s for 2018. If he’s really getting that little inventory, I’m surprised he’s still an AD.

The few I visit have told me they are struggling for this reason exactly. They are adjusting by trying to sell other brands to new potential Rolex customers, i.e. customers walking in for some hard to get piece that have no history and can be sold something else.

[904VT]

Hopefully Rolex does send some more SS to their traditional markets and we don't get a bunch of updates in the Basels to come that we won't be able to get until the next recession.

[jimcameron]

There are so many great watches out there. If Rolex can't deliver, there are plenty that will.

[42itus]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

not sure i believe the first BLRO came in october unless its an AD way, way, way down the priority list for distribution. Because he said you were first, and October is when you got it i would tend to take his comments with a grain of salt.

There is an incentive for an AD to say they are not getting any in order to shift the blame vs saying we have a few more bigger spenders than you as then you get mad and the relationship might be ruined.

I'm with you on this. I'm sure OP has a really good relationship with his AD, but most of us in sales (and to some degree we are all in sales in most facets of our lives) would manage the situation in a similar way. My SA is a little more blunt where he will tell me what he's seen come in and that he's trying his best for me. I'm not a VVVIP, I've "only" spent about 100K USD with them. But yeah, he will tell me that I'm a VIP and that he will get me whatever I want, but it will take time.

[42itus]

But appreciate the input. I would think SS deliveries are related to sales volume as well. And so I guess it's possible that a small AD didn't receive any BLNR last year. The AD I go to said he sees at least one a month, and he doesn't see everything that comes in.

[dkg1616]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

not sure i believe the first BLRO came in october unless its an AD way, way, way down the priority list for distribution. Because he said you were first, and October is when you got it i would tend to take his comments with a grain of salt.

There is an incentive for an AD to say they are not getting any in order to shift the blame vs saying we have a few more bigger spenders than you as then you get mad and the relationship might be ruined.

Agree with this statement...my AD said have only gotten one blue skydweller... they are one of the largest dealers if not the in Ohio

[envuks]

Are you dealing with the owner / CEO directly? What I've found at my AD is that customer selection of who gets offered in demand Rolex is often done at the top and details are not shared with staff, even managers.

When I picked up my 116500 this past fall, the CEO of my AD sent it to the store where I would pick it up. The store manager said she had only seen one 116500 before and hasn't seen a BLRO yet (this was in oct 2018).... while I believe her, my experience was that she wouldn't see them unless a customer (like me) wanted to pick it up in that specific store.

I could have purchased the 116500 without going to the store and they would have mailed it, but it was quicker to just go in.

The point that I am making is that unless you're dealing with the head /owner of the AD, you may be getting the truth from the AD employee (even a manager), but they might just not see the watches themselves.

Not sure if that's what is going on here or not, but figured I'd share


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[AK797]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

not sure i believe the first BLRO came in october unless its an AD way, way, way down the priority list for distribution. Because he said you were first, and October is when you got it i would tend to take his comments with a grain of salt.

There is an incentive for an AD to say they are not getting any in order to shift the blame vs saying we have a few more bigger spenders than you as then you get mad and the relationship might be ruined.

And not just the big spenders but the ADs who have the most big spenders will be getting better allocations too, so altho supply will not have changed which ADs get stock most certainly has been, and those with lots of whales or who have carelessly sold to flippers will be favoured and punished.

[airchitect]

Seems all the redesigns and new movements are keeping things at a standstill.

[33JS]

No BLROs in '18? Yeah, right. He's letting you down gently...
I've had 3 stories on supply from 3 staff members of 1 AD in 2 weeks.

Its just business and managing expectations...

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by DoctorA

Only Rolex knows!!

And they explicitly do NOT issue guidance to ADs.

Now, ADs tend to have more visibility than us, and so they can form their own conclusions based on what they receive now vs. historically... But it's all still conjecture.

[FloridaRolexGuy23]

For what it’s worth, not my primary ad but one I deal with Out of state told me right hand up to god he hasn’t got a Pepsi or a Ss skydweller since they released. Gets Daytona’s, subs, hulk,blnr, root beer, deep seas.....but not a single Pepsi or skydweller. I called bullshit to his face n he looked at me and said I’m 100% serious and gonna speak to my rep about it. He then told me that when it comes in he’s buying it for himself cuz he’s been on the waiting list for a year. Honesty is the best policy.

[FloridaRolexGuy23]

*double post delete

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by FloridaRolexGuy23

For what it’s worth, not my primary ad but one I deal with Out of state told me right hand up to god he hasn’t got a Pepsi or a Ss skydweller since they released. Gets Daytona’s, subs, hulk,blnr, root beer, deep seas.....but not a single Pepsi or skydweller. I called bullshit to his face n he looked at me and said I’m 100% serious and gonna speak to my rep about it. He then told me that when it comes in he’s buying it for himself cuz he’s been on the waiting list for a year. Honesty is the best policy.

Visited a AD today...for business .They have seen one white and one blue SkyD.Never even seen a black SkyD.

[Divingdeep87]

I got a new AD (never bought anything from him and he got 3 stores) , wrote to him in october that i wanted a BLRO in the beginning of march this year. He said that was possible and I was nr 15 on the list. Just got a mail that everything should work out and it was possible i should get the watch in the next 3 weeks.

Dont really think there is a shortage, just a higher demand.

[RobearH]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Visited a AD today...for business .They have seen one white and one blue SkyD.Never even seen a black SkyD.

Did you buy the Blue? I would have.

[francoamerican]

Isn't the best indication of supply the current prices on the grey market sites? (If you're an efficient market adherent?)

No date subs, Explorers, Exp II, all about $1500-$2500 over retail? Hulk and Batman 175% retail. Etc.

Doesn't lead me to believe 2019 is already a bust.

[FloridaRolexGuy23]

Originally Posted by Nejmann

Dont really think there is a shortage, just a higher demand.

This 100%, i was at my ad yesterday when he was unpacking his shipment and he got 1 or 2 of all the in demand stuff minus a daytona/skydweller. The look on my face followed by “ ss shortage my ass” was priceless. He blatantly said after I pick out what I want that he was gonna go right to his list and in the next couple hours have the whole box sold. The days of watches sitting in cases or in safes r over they move n another box comes that box moves another box comes. He’s not the biggest ad so he has to show Rolex that he is a big dog by moving volume.

[JK2Raptor]

Hello all, I'm a newbie here, since I'm in the market for a new watch in the next few months and have been leaning towards Rolex.

Stopped by my normal AD a few weeks ago to pick up a watch I had serviced and asked him about getting a 126660 DSSD. He laughed and said he doesn't know when they would come in. But he showed me his waiting list for both the black and d-blue versions. Both weren't long, but each name had the amount of money the clients had spent at the AD. All on both list had spent way more than I had there, so I'm sure I'd be waiting for quite awhile.

A few days ago, I stopped by another Rolex AD and talked with the store manager. Told him I was interested in the 126660 (both versions) and the 116680 YMII (my wife's choice). He said he could add me to the list for the 126660, but if I wanted to pay the deposit for the YMII, he could get it for me within three days or so. I was surprised about to hear that. He didn't provide much info about his waiting list priorities, so I'm sure it's the same as the other AD. I did tell him I'm retired military, so maybe he bumped me up a few spots. :)

He also said Rolex had just told him he could start taking deposits for the 116613LB and that they have added extra shifts at their facilities to increase production and try and catch up with demand. Take it all with a grain of salt, I guess, but maybe some good news.

[watchwatcher]

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised at anything, really.

Well, that's not quite true. I would be surprised if it got any easier to get the watch you want.

[KFP55]

I bought a new GMT LN Jan 2 this year from a local AD. Was my first purchase - when I asked about SS models, after 15 minutes of chatting (eg vetting..), he mentioned the GMT in the safe. They had 50 DJ’s and other stuff on display. They’ve been in business 130 years and are the largest Rolex AD I’m the Boston area.

Popped by yesterday and he said that was the only SS Rolex he’s gotten in this year, and was the first he’d gotten in months when I “luckily” stopped in. Said it would be 6+ months for an explorer 2 and no chance in hell for a BLNR, Sub, BLRO or Daytona. I struggle with believing him, but...I kind of believe him. I mean I said I’d buy a DJ for my wife on the spot if he could shrink the wait time and he simply responded with “there’s nothing I can do on the SS models - they aren’t coming - but I’d buy the DJ now before prices go up next month”. Shady? Maybe. Honest? Maybe. But I’m any event I am no closer to another SS...

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Nejmann

I got a new AD (never bought anything from him and he got 3 stores) , wrote to him in october that i wanted a BLRO in the beginning of march this year. He said that was possible and I was nr 15 on the list. Just got a mail that everything should work out and it was possible i should get the watch in the next 3 weeks.

Dont really think there is a shortage, just a higher demand.

I would venture to guess they didn't get 15 BLROs though and a good number of those on the list passed when they had a shot or weren't expressing real interest. Hope all works out for your BLRO

[GarageBMW]

My AD was meeting with Rolex HQ 2 weeks ago. He did not disclosed numbers of allocations per model but made it clear 2019 would be tougher than previous years for overall SS availability. Pretty similar to OP.

[Divingdeep87]

Originally Posted by FloridaRolexGuy23

This 100%, i was at my ad yesterday when he was unpacking his shipment and he got 1 or 2 of all the in demand stuff minus a daytona/skydweller. The look on my face followed by “ ss shortage my ass” was priceless. He blatantly said after I pick out what I want that he was gonna go right to his list and in the next couple hours have the whole box sold. The days of watches sitting in cases or in safes r over they move n another box comes that box moves another box comes. He’s not the biggest ad so he has to show Rolex that he is a big dog by moving volume.

Saw that and said the thing at my closest AD (a City with 250000 people) just couldn’t buy anything. Both Black and White daytona. He said he usually get a stainless steel daytona a month, bur didn’t know witch one. Offcause he is holding them for some bundle purchases..