Chrono24 Watch Collection Confirms Insanity

[inadeje]

I’m not sure if this system is accurate but, it seems to be quite close. These few pieces in my collection seem to have gone off the charts over the past 12 months. The % increase is the hypothetical current price compared to what I paid. I guess the looming recession will correct all of this madness. Either way, its pretty surreal.

[Etschell]

Sell now if you are so convinced. No one knows for sure. Insanity is always relative.

[DTap]

Definitely not the time to buy now. Correction coming.

[inadeje]

Originally Posted by Etschell

Sell now if you are so convinced. No one knows for sure. Insanity is always relative.

I don’t have any interest in the value, I’m simply a collector who is shocked by the recent market these days.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by inadeje

I don’t have any interest in the value, I’m simply a collector who is shocked by the recent market these days.

Why? The prices always go up over time.....

[DTap]

Originally Posted by Etschell

Why? The prices always go up over time.....

Depends on the timeframe. I would not bet the average Rolex will be worth more in 2 years.

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by Etschell

Why? The prices always go up over time.....

Absolutely not. Watch prices, like the supercar market, is very sensitive to the economy.

[77T]

There are no “gains” until they are realized.

Anything else is hypothetical.

But, in general, the value has risen like a yeast roll in a hot oven.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

Absolutely not. Watch prices, like the supercar market, is very sensitive to the economy.

So is every asset. It is all inter related. People act as if the economy drops certain assets hold value better. It all suffers. Over priced watches may suffer more. Or they may not.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by DTap

Depends on the timeframe. I would not bet the average Rolex will be worth more in 2 years.

Trend long term would still be up. Again it is like arguing to short any asset long term. Losing game. Very badly. Unless you are liquidating today it is irrelevant as one poster said.

[DTap]

Originally Posted by Etschell

Trend long term would still be up. Again it is like arguing to short any asset long term. Losing game. Very badly. Unless you are liquidating today it is irrelevant as one poster said.

I think it will take 20 years for a blro to get back to $20k. Watches that will be in production for 5 more years aren’t investments.

Buy gold... I think it’s a better short term asset

[Cryten]

Originally Posted by inadeje

I guess the looming recession will correct all of this madness.

Looming recession? Some in the media have been hoping for a recession for a couple of years now, thankfully its only wishful thinking on their part.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by DTap

I think it will take 20 years for a blro to get back to $20k. Watches that will be in production for 5 more years aren’t investments.

Buy gold... I think it’s a better short term asset

It may but gold is still 25 percent below its peak 8 years later. We can play this game all night if you like.

Rolex certainly is an investment over the long term. Trends can last forever. Perhaps 20k is a bit much for a blro. But that is extreme. Will a blro be above its msrp in 20 years? Yes.

[10klakes]

Originally Posted by Etschell

Perhaps 20k is a bit much for a blro. But that is extreme. Will a blro be above its msrp in 20 years? Yes.

Agreed. I also think it’s possible the MSRP could be over $20k taking into consideration inflation and price increases.

[Eric-London]

Originally Posted by inadeje

I don’t have any interest in the value

Great, I’ll take the 5513 off your hands for $1,500

[GMTmatt]

If the recent MSRP increase stays constant the BLRO will be about $17k MSRP in 11 years. Based upon I bought a 16710 blro for $5k in 2007 and the 126710 blro for $9250 in 2018. In those 11 years a stainless steel GMT increased by 85%. The same math would make a GMT MSRP of $17k in about 2030. If the dollar loses value against the CHF we could be looking at a $20k sticker... However, what I do know for certain is the MSRP for ALL Rolex models will increase faster than inflation... To conclude, if you got em, smoke em.

[007timer]

Originally Posted by DTap

Depends on the timeframe. I would not bet the average Rolex will be worth more in 2 years.

Ageed


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Muxi]

When you view the horizon over a 20 year period, you need to factor in the incremental price increase that Rolex tend to implement thereby raising the bar somehow. My first sub was less than $2000 new 25 years ago.

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by Etschell

So is every asset. It is all inter related. People act as if the economy drops certain assets hold value better. It all suffers. Over priced watches may suffer more. Or they may not.

False. When the economy drops, not all items are affected similarly. The demand for luxury goods disproportionately suffers in comparison to more common goods. The selling price of a used Ford Taurus will change very little. A 911 GT2RS could drop 25% or more from where speculators pumped it up to before the economy went south.

[Xtralarg]

Originally Posted by inadeje

I don’t have any interest in the value, I’m simply a collector who is shocked by the recent market these days.

Yes you do, that's the topic if the thread you started. So many people on here deny being bothered about the value of their watches, BS!

[HORNBLOWER]

Grey market is flooded with every used model you can desire, all at massive prices. If they achieve these prices is another question. Some are for sale a long time. Best not to worry about market values. Buy and enjoy.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by HORNBLOWER

Grey market is flooded with every used model you can desire, all at massive prices. If they achieve these prices is another question. Some are for sale a long time. Best not to worry about market values. Buy and enjoy.

Have to agree but sadly Rolex are no longer watches to be bought and enjoyed now little more than ££££$$$ to many.

[77T]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree but sadly Rolex are no longer watches to be bought and enjoyed now little more than ££££$$$ to many.

I think the trend of Rolex ££££$$$ topics on TRF has shifted over the years towards that side of watch collecting. Steve did a good job setting some of the rules here to help us stay away from toxic topics like certain weapons, politics and verbal abuse.

He has a rule about price discussions that may not be as strictly monitored and that leads to these long diatribes about pricing and valuation and financial appreciation.

I’ve noticed that this trend doesn’t extend as much to Vintage, Seiko, and Omega threads, though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[The1019]

Made up figures it’s not worth that at all to many

[collarcity]

Best time to buy was yesterday. Prices are not going down. People betting against America and hoping for a recession, either for political reasons or because they're Rolex bargain hunting, are going to realize that the only reduction is going to be to their 401k.

[sillo]

Sad to see a watch collection treated like a stock portfolio.

[Luther89]

Originally Posted by DTap

Definitely not the time to buy now. Correction coming.

People who claim to be able to predict the future make me smile. When was the last time you saw a ‘psychic’ win the lotto!

[mobster600]

Thats $38,157 in total. Nice chunk of cash if you can sell them.....id take the money are run for the hills.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by No SUBctitute

False. When the economy drops, not all items are affected similarly. The demand for luxury goods disproportionately suffers in comparison to more common goods. The selling price of a used Ford Taurus will change very little. A 911 GT2RS could drop 25% or more from where speculators pumped it up to before the economy went south.

Your litmus must be the greatest financial depression in the last 100 years. What you dont realize is it wont be like that this time. We have qe and negative interest rates to play with. It can stay up for a very long time and wont be as bad. Watch.

[DTap]

Originally Posted by Luther89

People who claim to be able to predict the future make me smile. When was the last time you saw a ‘psychic’ win the lotto!

You can take my prediction too the bank. The price of Items selling for 2x retail when they are still being made in not sustainable.

Dutch tulips
Baseball cards
Dog food that sells below shipping cost

Not sustainable.