HK Recession

[baglady]

With HK officially in recession...

...maybe easier to find the watches I want? Any thoughts? Open to flying down there for a 5164r

[WatchLurv]

Not on display.

Just wait for the China tourists to come back again and prices will go up.

It's only in recession because of the definition. Landlords are still rich as heck and Rolex and Patek displays haven't changed.

[Jonbut76]

Spoke to my AD. He says most clients are local and so hasn’t impacted them much. Still lots of people with money and supply is constrained such that demand easily meets this.

Also spoke to a reseller with branches in HK and SG and business is still fine. Wealthy individuals from SEA are not coming to HK and instead going to Singapore. They did also say that secondary market nautilus prices seem to have peaked and come down a little. Aquanaut is still on the up and up.

This particular reseller had a 5740 and a 5167A bracelet on display.

A 5164R shouldn’t be too hard to get for a local. I guess maybe a few months. A is another story of course.

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by Jonbut76

Spoke to my AD. He says most clients are local and so hasn’t impacted them much. Still lots of people with money and supply is constrained such that demand easily meets this.

Also spoke to a reseller with branches in HK and SG and business is still fine. Wealthy individuals from SEA are not coming to HK and instead going to Singapore. They did also say that secondary market nautilus prices seem to have peaked and come down a little. Aquanaut is still on the up and up.

This particular reseller had a 5740 and a 5167A bracelet on display.

A 5164R shouldn’t be too hard to get for a local. I guess maybe a few months. A is another story of course.

I'm going around to every dealer on the weekend giving them my business card so I can get signed up for the list for the 10th time of my desired watches.

[fuuzoku]

Originally Posted by Jonbut76

Spoke to my AD. He says most clients are local and so hasn’t impacted them much. Still lots of people with money and supply is constrained such that demand easily meets this.

Also spoke to a reseller with branches in HK and SG and business is still fine. Wealthy individuals from SEA are not coming to HK and instead going to Singapore. They did also say that secondary market nautilus prices seem to have peaked and come down a little. Aquanaut is still on the up and up.

This particular reseller had a 5740 and a 5167A bracelet on display.

A 5164R shouldn’t be too hard to get for a local. I guess maybe a few months. A is another story of course.

Out of interest, you mention a few months for 5164R. Do you think the waitlist for this piece is considerably shorter than 5167, 5711, 5712?

Interested in putting my name in the hat for a 5164R but not keen on waiting years. Gotta be in it to win it I suppose !

[mongrelnomoad]

I’m in Hong Kong next month. Do you think it’s worthwhile calling ADs in advance of the trip, or is it (still) a lost cause?

On another note, anyone have any experience with ADs in Japan? I can’t imagine the Japanese playing the same bundling games as other locales (though I can imagine the ‘list’ is as opaque there as elsewhere)...

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

I’m in Hong Kong next month. Do you think it’s worthwhile calling ADs in advance of the trip, or is it (still) a lost cause?

On another note, anyone have any experience with ADs in Japan? I can’t imagine the Japanese playing the same bundling games as other locales (though I can imagine the ‘list’ is as opaque there as elsewhere)...

You can try calling Japan AD but I understand they are very loyal to their existing customers. I was in Tokyo in June and there is no chance of popular pieces. I think all their popular pieces go to their VIP only.

HK might be better. I was also there in June before the riot and I saw a couple of ladies Aquanaut that we usually don't see in other parts of Asia. I reckon the watch inventory should be even better now in Nov. Just sharing.

[Jonbut76]

Originally Posted by fuuzoku

Out of interest, you mention a few months for 5164R. Do you think the waitlist for this piece is considerably shorter than 5167, 5711, 5712?



Interested in putting my name in the hat for a 5164R but not keen on waiting years. Gotta be in it to win it I suppose !

Yes. Steel is much hotter. The R is easier to get. You have to be a local though....using the business card system in HK.

[fuuzoku]

Originally Posted by Jonbut76

Yes. Steel is much hotter. The R is easier to get. You have to be a local though....using the business card system in HK.

Interesting, I haven't heard about the business card system... I'm in London so I might get in touch with the boutique and dealers. see what they say about the waits

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

I'm going around to every dealer on the weekend giving them my business card so I can get signed up for the list for the 10th time of my desired watches.

I’ll send mercedes with u ;)

[wlchuccc]

Originally Posted by fuuzoku

Interesting, I haven't heard about the business card system... I'm in London so I might get in touch with the boutique and dealers. see what they say about the waits

For any popular models, you need to provide a local business card, that is required by all pp ADs in HK. Good luck anyway

[qrc36]

There are a lot of dress watches in the display right now at all the ADs (there are 5 stores within 10 minutes walk along Queen's Road Central/Landmark).

Watches that you wouldn't see on display this time last year (e.g. 5320G, 5524G) are everywhere right now.

Don't bother asking about 5711 5712 5164 5167 though - there are so many locals on the list still waiting for their watch to come in.

My sales associate was laughing at the "idiotic people" (her words, not mine) who think that suddenly there will be lots of 5711 in stock with nobody buying them.

During my chat with her, there was a Caucasian man who came in and asked if the store had "that steel watch everybody wants" available. He didn't even know the name! One of the sales associates said "we've got the ladies' watches in steel over on this cabinet, they are quite popular" ... while we both rolled our eyes and giggled.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by qrc36

There are a lot of dress watches in the display right now at all the ADs (there are 5 stores within 10 minutes walk along Queen's Road Central/Landmark).

Watches that you wouldn't see on display this time last year (e.g. 5320G, 5524G) are everywhere right now.

Don't bother asking about 5711 5712 5164 5167 though - there are so many locals on the list still waiting for their watch to come in.

My sales associate was laughing at the "idiotic people" (her words, not mine) who think that suddenly there will be lots of 5711 in stock with nobody buying them.

During my chat with her, there was a Caucasian man who came in and asked if the store had "that steel watch everybody wants" available. He didn't even know the name! One of the sales associates said "we've got the ladies' watches in steel over on this cabinet, they are quite popular" ... while we both rolled our eyes and giggled.

Perhaps a stupid question, and perhaps not directly related to watches, but how likely is it for a foreigner to find themselves suddenly in the middle of a demonstration/riot? Can the riots be predicted?

We usually stay Hong Kong side in Central and are planning to head out next month - with very young children.

In 2014 we found ourselves in MongKok while the police broke up the last dregs of Occupy, and I'd rather not go through that again with the kids.

[qrc36]

Yes the protests are all planned in advance (so that people turn up!) and the best source of knowledge is your hotel concierge - they will know which places to avoid.

It's almost always fine on a weekday before 7pm. Weekends you'll be fine before 2pm.

The protests aren't in the same place each day and so you will need to ask your hotel concierge on a daily basis.

If you avoid those areas you'll be absolutely fine.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by qrc36

Yes the protests are all planned in advance (so that people turn up!) and the best source of knowledge is your hotel concierge - they will know which places to avoid.

It's almost always fine on a weekday before 7pm. Weekends you'll be fine before 2pm.

The protests aren't in the same place each day and so you will need to ask your hotel concierge on a daily basis.

If you avoid those areas you'll be absolutely fine.

Thanks for that. We will be there over a weekend - when you say it'll be problematic after 2pm, is that localised, or general?

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Thanks for that. We will be there over a weekend - when you say it'll be problematic after 2pm, is that localised, or general?

Localized to different areas. They go by the motto of "be like water" (fluid), so they move in different locations.

Last week they started at around 3PM in TST and ended up down in Mongkok at 6-7PM where it ended around midnight. Nothing happened in Central. If you want to stay up to date of police movement you check out "hkmap.live" (that's an URL that gets updated instantly).

It's different from week to week. Your concierge/front desk staff will know where things will start. I don't use concierge, so I keep my updates via Instagram.

And you have nothing to fear from the protesters. You should be more in fear of the police firing tear gas and transport getting cut.

[qrc36]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Thanks for that. We will be there over a weekend - when you say it'll be problematic after 2pm, is that localised, or general?

Very localized.

It's easy to avoid - I have not yet seen any protest with my real eyes, let alone being caught in one.

[quattro100]

I say stay away from TST and most weekends are now ok on the hk island side. Your hotel should be able to tell you where to avoid. Like others said, day time and early evening usually fine


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[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Localized to different areas. They go by the motto of "be like water" (fluid), so they move in different locations.

Last week they started at around 3PM in TST and ended up down in Mongkok at 6-7PM where it ended around midnight. Nothing happened in Central. If you want to stay up to date of police movement you check out "hkmap.live" (that's an URL that gets updated instantly).

It's different from week to week. Your concierge/front desk staff will know where things will start. I don't use concierge, so I keep my updates via Instagram.

And you have nothing to fear from the protesters. You should be more in fear of the police firing tear gas and transport getting cut.

In 2014 I watched as the peaceful protesters were charged by riot police, and sprayed with water canon. It was deeply unsettling to see the asymmetry of available force. And things have moved on substantially since then...

Thank you for the advice. I may have to take my kids to Stanley rather than the usual shopping and eating in Kowloon.

[qrc36]

Thursday night (Halloween) and tonight (Saturday) there have been protests and tear gas fired in Central. Everything was fine before 5pm / 6pm though.

Best to ask the concierge (or you can call up the concierge of another hotel in the area of interest, pretending you're having dinner at their hotel) and ask if it's safe in their vicinity.

[fullofboats]

Popular PP/AP/Rolex watches are NOT available in HK. There has been no change with the ADs/boutiques. Just think about it...how many aquanauts/nautilius does the average PP AD get per year? Then consider how many thousands of millionaires are there in HK...

If you want to go the grey route, then yes, they're available but prices are the same as rest of the world.