Will Watch prices come down anytime soon?

[socialpro]

I know it's anyones guess how anything will play out but I've been holding of on picking up a few key pieces I've been wanting (mostly Rolex) due to astronomical pricing in the last 1-2 years.

Depending on how things shake out, I'm not opposed to buying a few watches and/or cars in a few months time. Not to say that I'm not looking at all opportunities on the table (financially speaking).

I would imagine watches are one of the first things to go on the list of non-essentials. Does anyone have experience from '08-09 to comment on where you think this market will be headed in the near term?

[beshannon]

Why would they?

[Michael V]

It all depends on what happens with the virus and how long this goes on for...

But, after the people who actually want to own certain pieces get their watches ( myself included ) the shelves will become stocked again. They are talking 20% unemployment with a nasty domino effect on business going bankrupt. People spending 2x msrp on a Pepsi at a grey are over with. The flippers and greys are/will be left standing in the game of musical chairs.

[socialpro]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Why would they?

I'm not sure if you are being sarcastic or not - but when employees start being layed off and business coming to a halt in various industries - I suspect lots of daytona or AP owners who were trying to 'flex hard' and mortgaged their pieces will all be coming to market in the near term.

Not to say that this is any indication of anything, but there has been a steady inventory increase of high-end cars in the last week, model by model.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by socialpro

I know it's anyones guess how anything will play out but I've been holding of on picking up a few key pieces I've been wanting (mostly Rolex) due to astronomical pricing in the last 1-2 years.

Depending on how things shake out, I'm not opposed to buying a few watches and/or cars in a few months time. Not to say that I'm not looking at all opportunities on the table (financially speaking).

I would imagine watches are one of the first things to go on the list of non-essentials. Does anyone have experience from '08-09 to comment on where you think this market will be headed in the near term?

If the credit market has issues again then all luxury goods are easy to buy. I used to pass over 5-digit sports models in favor of Omega because they were $4,000 and had hollow sounding bracelet. What a dummy.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by socialpro

I'm not sure if you are being sarcastic or not - but when employees start being layed off and business coming to a halt in various industries - I suspect lots of daytona or AP owners who were trying to 'flex hard' and mortgaged their pieces will all be coming to market in the near term.

Not to say that this is any indication of anything, but there has been a steady inventory increase of high-end cars in the last week, model by model.

So lets extrapolate your question.

Do AD's need to discount? No and besides they are likely not open.
Will AD's be getting inventory? No many factories are closed.

So you are left with those who need to sell their watches. Will they?
If they do, why would they discount them?

The law of supply and demand governs prices.

Your hope that a desperate person will take 50% of the value for their jewelry is not realistic IMHO. Will someone sell for that? Perhaps if they are desperate enough but consider how many times this question is being asked each day and you will see that the demand is just as strong as it ever was.

China is back to work, Japan is not really affected . . .

[donas]

My guess is prices aren't coming down. If someone is in dire need of money and throws their watch on Craigslist (which personally I would never buy a watch from) then maybe you'll get the panicked, desperate seller's pricing. If they are selling on TRF or the like, they "know what time it is" (old school pun intended) and will be pricing said watch accordingly.

As far as the big players, if Rolex shuts down production for 6-8 months people are going to panic and prices will sky rocket, I'd bet.

[socialpro]

All great points so far. I can see both sides of the (potential future) story.

I'm imagining a perfect 2nd hand market storm (for me) situation where supply increases (who need to consolidate their collection), and demand (at today's prices) decreases, where something will have to give. I predict it will be a 10-25% near term decrease from where 2nd hand prices currently stand. Maybe I'm dreaming - Not sure. It'll be fun either way and if I'm wrong and prices stay the same or increase - might still be a great time to get into the game at that point.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by socialpro

All great points so far. I can see both sides of the (potential future) story.

I'm imagining a perfect 2nd hand market storm (for me) situation where supply increases (who need to consolidate their collection), and demand (at today's prices) decreases, where something will have to give. I predict it will be a 10-25% near term decrease from where 2nd hand prices currently stand. Maybe I'm dreaming - Not sure. It'll be fun either way and if I'm wrong and prices stay the same or increase - might still be a great time to get into the game at that point.

I understand your viewpoint although I disagree with your premise.

Wanting values to decrease so you can buy seems to make little sense. I imagine that after you buy you want them to go up? Is that the "game"?

You are welcome to view this anyway you like, I buy watches for enjoyment.

If I want to speculate on assets I put my money into the equity markets

[037]

Originally Posted by socialpro

owners who were trying to 'flex hard' and mortgaged their pieces

I'm still trying to wrap my head around this.

[swils8610]

Only time will tell...


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[TheVTCGuy]

I hope so

[Recondope]

Who knows. Unfortunately I had to trade my crystal ball for a few rolls of toilet paper.

[Igor01]

With what looks like a complete global economic shutdown that will last months I suspect that most of us will have more pressing concerns than ridiculous markups on watches whn the pandemic is finally over.

[zengineer]

If my 401k dropping a half million is what it takes to save 5 grand on a watch I'm not so sure I am looking forward to that.

Sent from my Motorola Bag Phone

[superdog]

careful...this question is for some reason taboo. we can talk about:

1. the housing market.
2. the job market.
3. the stock market

but for some reason, we cant talk about the watch market. people get upset.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by zengineer

If my 401k dropping a half million is what it takes to save 5 grand on a watch I'm not so sure I am looking forward to that.

Sent from my Motorola Bag Phone

I'd prefer to have not lost a fortune too. I agree with you.

but pros and cons to everything. and if there is a silver lining, I am all for it.

[TNT009]

Seriously doubt it..... If they put SS models out they will sell and sell as soon as they hit case!

[socialpro]

Originally Posted by Igor01

With what looks like a complete global economic shutdown that will last months I suspect that most of us will have more pressing concerns than ridiculous markups on watches whn the pandemic is finally over.

Yes - 100%

Originally Posted by superdog

careful...this question is for some reason taboo. we can talk about:

1. the housing market.
2. the job market.
3. the stock market

but for some reason, we cant talk about the watch market. people get upset.

Noted

Originally Posted by superdog

I'd prefer to have not lost a fortune too. I agree with you.

but pros and cons to everything. and if there is a silver lining, I am all for it.

Just throwing out thoughts and trying to look for some positive for the near term. And I agree - I'm not taking this overly serious as the money vanishing in 401Ks and other accounts is nothing compared to what can be made up by any watch or more

[Knappo 1307]

no

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by superdog

careful...this question is for some reason taboo. we can talk about:

1. the housing market.
2. the job market.
3. the stock market

but for some reason, we cant talk about the watch market. people get upset.

That’s funny and it’s true

[bayerische]

Originally Posted by brandrea

That’s funny and it’s true

It is strange indeed. A big part of that is people have become accustomed to the ever price rise of watches. Many people also justify their watch buying with the continuous price rise.

Watches will tank! We are already seeing effects of it.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by bayerische

It is strange indeed. A big part of that is people have become accustomed to the ever price rise of watches. Many people also justify their watch buying with the continuous price rise.



Watches will tank! We are already seeing effects of it.

So they really are just to be purchased and worn for pleasure

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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by zengineer

If my 401k dropping a half million is what it takes to save 5 grand on a watch I'm not so sure I am looking forward to that.

Sent from my Motorola Bag Phone

And yet many people here seem to think this is great

Originally Posted by brandrea

So they really are just to be purchased and worn for pleasure

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Exactly although that seems lost on many

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by bayerische

It is strange indeed. A big part of that is people have become accustomed to the ever price rise of watches. Many people also justify their watch buying with the continuous price rise.

Watches will tank! We are already seeing effects of it.

Good point, I agree with your assessment. It’s definitely beginning of the end for flippers

[superdog]

Originally Posted by beshannon

And yet many people here seem to think this is great



Exactly although that seems lost on many

Just offering a different opinion my friend.

I personally don’t see anyone celebrating this.

It’s just part of the discussion.

[1William]

I believe we will need to see more indicators of an underlying collapse, housing in 08, to believe this is nothing more than global panic. With watch factories closing you will see a ripple impact on the models and numbers of watches. The markets will stabilize in time as we adjust to this new normal and certain stocks will be significantly impacted. The market will come back and watch prices may fluctuate downward on the hot models by 5-10% but not much more than that. Many of the large Grey's will buy all the inventory they can pending stabilization and manufacturing short falls. In the long run we could see the market increase in price. The sky is not falling and no one is going to get a SS Rolex Sport Model for a significant discount from a retailer or a Grey for the foreseeable future.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

careful...this question is for some reason taboo. we can talk about:

1. the housing market.
2. the job market.
3. the stock market

but for some reason, we cant talk about the watch market. people get upset.

I am usually on the side that gets "upset", not because there is a discussion but because those seeking to profit from pain just bother me.
When someone suggest that I just don't look at the thread or not comment if I "don't like it", my response is "perhaps you should not have posted it"?

Originally Posted by superdog

Just offering a different opinion my friend.

I personally don’t see anyone celebrating this.

It’s just part of the discussion.

I need to just stop looking at threads like this that seem to appear on a daily basis. There have been many threads where people seem glad to be able to stick it to the grey dealers and get watches for less than the flippers paid.

Few here seem to actually enjoy watches and want to talk about watches in the context of functionality, construction and performance.

The true spirit of high horology is the history, tradition and innovation of the companies and the art.

There is none of that in bad mouthing someone who is trying to sell a watch and hoping that they lose money.

I'm out!

[Art 1]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am usually on the side that gets "upset", not because there is a discussion but because those seeking to profit from pain just bother me.
When someone suggest that I just don't look at the thread or not comment if I "don't like it", my response is "perhaps you should not have posted it"?



I need to just stop looking at threads like this that seem to appear on a daily basis. There have been many threads where people seem glad to be able to stick it to the grey dealers and get watches for less than the flippers paid.

Few here seem to actually enjoy watches and want to talk about watches in the context of functionality, construction and performance.

The true spirit of high horology is the history, tradition and innovation of the companies and the art.

There is none of that in bad mouthing someone who is trying to sell a watch and hoping that they lose money.

I'm out!

Some like to talk about the business aspect of the watch business. It does seem to bother you. Best to avoid the threads that do.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am usually on the side that gets "upset", not because there is a discussion but because those seeking to profit from pain just bother me.
When someone suggest that I just don't look at the thread or not comment if I "don't like it", my response is "perhaps you should not have posted it"?



I need to just stop looking at threads like this that seem to appear on a daily basis. There have been many threads where people seem glad to be able to stick it to the grey dealers and get watches for less than the flippers paid.

Few here seem to actually enjoy watches and want to talk about watches in the context of functionality, construction and performance.

The true spirit of high horology is the history, tradition and innovation of the companies and the art.

There is none of that in bad mouthing someone who is trying to sell a watch and hoping that they lose money.

I'm out!

your thought process is if you don't like it, someone should not have posted it?

that doesn't seem fair.

anyway, I understand my friend. I don't like certain threads myself. And I agree, I would also not appreciate anything where someone profits from someone else's pain. probably best we should both avoid the ones we don't agree with.

See you over in the investment thread.