Now that things are opening up I feel the grey market demand will drop.

[richard371]

Most people that buy these watches were most likely not effected financially by the pandemic. They were fortunate enough to work remote etc and because of the lack of travel and other things they spent a lot of time online and spent their excess money buying toys etc. Now that things are opening up people are ready to travel and do other things. I’m certain the bubble will burst and we’ve seen the peak for grey market watch prices. Look at the famous trusted seller. He’s had the same Daytonas sitting at the same price for weeks now. Thoughts.

[vh2k]

Experience spending is poised to explode. But I don’t think there will be a massive correction in the secondary market for Rolex.

[richard371]

I don’t think it will drop massively but I think we have reached a peak in secondary prices.

[arcampado]

I actually think the opposite and the hype train is really just starting to take off. People that have always been able to afford luxary goods have finally discovered the Rolex brand and are now buying into the hype. I’m sure many people post-COVID will continue to buy luxary goods and take vacations as the new YOLO trend continues. With supply remaining limited and demand remaining sky high the secondary market prices should remain stable or slowly and steadily increase. Just my 2 cents

[ks58]

Good for anybody who has the money to line the pockets of the grey dealers and get the watch they want fast. I'll go and buy only MSRP watches and wait.

[sj24k]

i think it's a fool's game to try and predict this stuff. do a search on this forum going back years and there have been so many predictions about bursting bubbles. almost none of which have ever come to fruition. when the pandemic started everyone was saying the bubble was going to burst, and take a look at how that worked out. if i was forced to guess, i would guess the opposite of you. since everyone who's made a boatload during the pandemic is still making boatloads today, and the eagerness to spend has never been higher. but hey, my guess is as good as yours.

also, i'd caution against using individual grey listings as a marker for anything. just because a particular item looks like it is sitting for months on end, doesn't mean other very similar ones aren't selling. i believe that many resellers keep multiples (of the desired models) in inventory and sometimes don't change their listings while simultaneously selling equivalent models. (or at least quickly swap one for another.) i think it's best to look at overall market trends spread out across time vs. looking at an individual reference. and the trends show nothing but up, up, and up.

as with most things. time will tell.

[richard371]

I’m not in a position to afford grey market watches but I did buy other toys during the pandemic. Now that things are opening up im moving more of my disposable income to traveling again etc.

Also I’m not usually the type that posts on predictions with grey market prices etc but I have a strong hunch on this one as I had a similar convo with friends in regards to other stuff and they feel the same.

[YGRLX]

It’s beyond hype now. Prices will continue to rise. We now have every celebrity and athlete buying watches as collectors. This is different than before where they would buy a single piece. You have Lebron James buying a black panther AP but also a 41mm red OP.

All I’m saying is Rolex prices are cheap relative to hyper watches or hyper cars. To think a Batman at 18k is expensive is kinda nuts. I use to think it was a bubble that would burst but it’s more than that now. There is a serious new love for watches that transcends to a whole new type of clientele. It’s also a new asset class that people look to invest in.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by richard371

Most people that buy these watches were most likely not effected financially by the pandemic. They were fortunate enough to work remote etc and because of the lack of travel and other things they spent a lot of time online and spent their excess money buying toys etc. Now that things are opening up people are ready to travel and do other things. I’m certain the bubble will burst and we’ve seen the peak for grey market watch prices. Look at the famous trusted seller. He’s had the same Daytonas sitting at the same price for weeks now. Thoughts.

So they will have money to travel but wont buy watches?

Demand will only increase

[Nikrnic]

Who knows, not me. Hopefully your right for those looking to buy. I'm done speculating and done buying for now, well I'll know about that after my AD coffee visit tomorrow but no grey shopping for any new Rolex, that's for sure.


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[Etschell]

Daytonas were 40k. Now low 30s for real sale price. It'll be 20s soon.

But it won't go back to the days of 2015.

[Bmats]

No one has a crystal ball. But I do think people’s priorities will change. That said, we’re talking about a small supply and it only takes a small number of buyers to keep the demand up. Lots of the people can afford travel and watches. Some probably don’t blink much at the cost of the watches. So while it may change things at the margins, I’m not convinced it means the display cases will be full. Conversely, I don’t think the demand will just continue to rise endlessly.

To me, the biggest issue will be when there’s an economy course correction—things seem primed for some change. It always happens. Everything is a cycle. At that point, people will spend less on luxury items and demand will inevitably go down. Of course no one, not even Warren Buffett can predict when that will happen.

[RollieNZ]

I agree. I know I have spent more on watches due to the fact that I cannot travel.

Once I can travel again my watch purchasing will be curtailed.

I also think that once the financial system rebalances with higher interest rates then all asset classes will lose some of their appeal.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by richard371

Most people that buy these watches were most likely not effected financially by the pandemic. They were fortunate enough to work remote etc and because of the lack of travel and other things they spent a lot of time online and spent their excess money buying toys etc. Now that things are opening up people are ready to travel and do other things. I’m certain the bubble will burst and we’ve seen the peak for grey market watch prices. Look at the famous trusted seller. He’s had the same Daytonas sitting at the same price for weeks now. Thoughts.

It’s the exact opposite. The better the economy, the more demand there will be for luxury items. Only a significant economic decline will change things.


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[Tensai]

Demand won't drop.

It did not drop when the pandemic started (even though many on this board predicted a drop), and it won't drop now.

[jgottsman11]

I don't see demand slowing down any time soon.

[ndrs63]

I’m not so sure. So far none of the predictions on this forum were correct. I remember during the peak of COVID hopefuls expecting the sports models to be widely available at retail, even predictions that ADs would be begging for our business.
Please prove me wrong!


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[Socal Runner]

Just goes things are opening up doesn’t mean there will be more watches readily available at ADs. I see the watch market holding pretty steady.

[RollieNZ]

Originally Posted by Socal Runner

Just goes things are opening up doesn’t mean there will be more watches readily available at ADs. I see the watch market holding pretty steady.

I don't think the issue is about more availability - it's more that many people may choose to spend their disposable income on things other than watches.

[RollieNZ]

What concerns me is the many posts on social media about how to make money from buying and selling the 'hot' watches.

I have also been aware of the huge increase of Rolex watches for sale on my local equivalent of Ebay. All at inflated prices of course.

It seems to me that for some people it's not about the enjoyment or pleasure derived from owning a quality timepiece anymore.

[sj24k]

Originally Posted by YGRLX

It’s beyond hype now. Prices will continue to rise. We now have every celebrity and athlete buying watches as collectors. This is different than before where they would buy a single piece. You have Lebron James buying a black panther AP but also a 41mm red OP.

All I’m saying is Rolex prices are cheap relative to hyper watches or hyper cars. To think a Batman at 18k is expensive is kinda nuts. I use to think it was a bubble that would burst but it’s more than that now. There is a serious new love for watches that transcends to a whole new type of clientele. It’s also a new asset class that people look to invest in.

Nailed it. Rolex is a fine, high quality luxury brand, but it's entry level for the BIG money, and the wealthy are only getting wealthier at a staggering rate. Even at current inflated prices, Rolex is chump change for so many these days.

No offense, but people who decide to take a vacation vs. buy a watch are not going to drive the market value here. There are more than enough people who will buy a few extra watches just to take on a vacation (or while on a vacation) to more than make up for it.

But again, what the hell do I know :)

[uhren917]

Originally Posted by richard371

... but I think we have reached a peak in secondary prices.

agreed, until we reach the next peak in secondary prices.

[superspectral]

Events that could cause a market drop:
Inflation (core needs leave less for luxury)
Rising Interest rates (harder to buy or finance inventory)
Enforcement of capital gains on watch sales
Monetary crisis in east Asia w/out covid
Economic slowdown due to China shutting down due to Covid (they are not well vaccinated)
Significant war (eg China invaded Taiwan)
Loss of interest/move to new collectables like NFT

[uniqueMR]

Unfortunately cannot predict the future :)

[the dark knight]

Not most people here, but some people do forget that things were bad before the pandemic. I think the post-pandemic "normal" will basically be what it was in 2019. Stuff like SS DJs should be readily available at ADs. Less hyped professional models like the Explorer I and II or Air-King should sometimes be available at ADs or be obtainable with a small wait. Something like a Sub would take some more effort or a small grey market premium. That will probably be the new normal as we go through this year. At least I hope.

But the rarer popular watches like the Daytona or Pepsi should keep going up in the secondary market imo.

I think where the hype will completely die down is for other watch brands. I think this is the "I'm bored and have nothing to spend money on so I'll spend it on luxury watches" crowd. They probably initially looked at Rolex, saw none available, so turned to other brands while production was curtailed due to COVID.

There was a brief period of time last year when even stuff like the Omega Seamaster was not always guaranteed to be found at an AD. They had 3 of the blue dials at the Omega AD I visited on Monday. Zenith Chronomaster Sports can be had under MSRP on the grey market now. Grand Seiko is a brand that was probably overhyped a bit during the pandemic that may die down a bit.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Rolex is doing everything right, that won’t change. Maybe pricing at the greys will settle down some but as long as Rolex maintains their production below actual demand there will always be those who want to jump the line by paying more. No great seismic shift on the horizon, maybe just a little stabilization.

[Rashid.bk]

Originally Posted by beshannon

So they will have money to travel but wont buy watches?

Demand will only increase

Agree, nothing is letting up. There has been bubble talk for years, meanwhile the housing market is exploding, most commodities are up, travel is prepped to explode with vaccines easing restrictions and ADs are bone dry. the outlook is dim.

And if there's a slowdown all that will happen is greys will sit on inventory.
It's a shitty time to be interested in buying a Rolex unless you buy grey or have excess funds at the vip level to buy all sorts of bull crap that's forced into bundling.

[teck21]

I do agree that a lot of the money pouring into Rolex (and many other watch brands and luxury goods) is ‘boredom’ money.

Some will have to choose between Rolex and vacations (because Rolex is priced at such entry levels they will also attract the semi-wealthy as well), and many will not.

However the resumption of (mainly) international travel will take a lot of the boredom away, and a lot of money will be directed away from Rolex (and other frivolous things people have been splurging on) either because

Some people can’t afford to splurge on both, or

The wealthier buyers, especially newcomers will simply lose interest when they have other frivolous toys to play with again.

My AD literally sells out each shipment by lunch time. There’s no such thing as an unpopular Rolex today, and no Rolex of any reference is any use as ‘leverage’ for a popular reference.

This level of FOMO probably has as much to do with boredom, as it does with speculative frenzy, and they feed off each other.

Some deflation in Rolex interest and grey prices is inevitable when normalcy inevitably returns.

I’m sure there will be many people then who will scratch their heads and wonder what possessed them to buy a Rolex in the first place.


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[RealMadrid1988]

Originally Posted by richard371

I don’t think it will drop massively but I think we have reached a peak in secondary prices.

I kind of agree with this. The white 116500 is a great example; it will always go for well over MSRP, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it drop back down to the low 30s by the end of the year. The $40,000 example piece OP referenced has indeed been sitting there for quite a while and does not appear to be priced to move. And it’s no wonder, because that price is laughable.

But then again, who knows?

[broham84]

Never understood what traveling has anything to do with buying watches...

Do you not buy a car because you went out to eat?