40%

[scooba]

Hi , I was talking with a SA yesterday and what she said suprised me , To her understanding 40% off Rolex new inventory ends up with the Greys . I think she must mean 40% of Professional models end up with greys

Interested in your opinions

[teck21]

My opinion is that the idea that ‘most’ Rolex professionals models globally go directly to greys is rubbish:

The idea most ADs are in cahoots with grey dealers more rubbish.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[padi56]

Originally Posted by scooba

Hi , I was talking with a SA yesterday and what she said suprised me , To her understanding 40% off Rolex new inventory ends up with the Greys . I think she must mean 40% of Professional models end up with greys

Interested in your opinions

Depends what you mean do ADs sell all these so called hot Rolex watches to the grey market thus putting there business in jeopardy, if Rolex found out extremely doubtful. Do the so called relationship and VIP clients buy and flip to the grey market, as many posts on forum lately state that ADs track all watches sold and ban from future buying if found out again doubtful. Or is now that Rolex watches are now seen as little more that £££$$$$€€€€ objects things, most likely .


And seems like now this once great forum about the history of the brand and the actual Rolex watches have now become a grey market discussion forum.

[rambo99]

this forum has turned into a grey market discussion forum!

[Benzsiam]

40% seems too high, I think it is about 25% and mostly from ADs (not the boutiques).

[bp1000]

I don’t think that’s accurate

We know Rolex puts out about 1m units per year.

We have established stuff like the steel Daytona is probably about 1.5% to 2% of that. Using it as an example due to its “flip-ability”

The various market places don’t have the cumulative inventory to support this 40% claim.

15,000 steel Daytona’s per year

450 currently on c24. If they turned over the entire stock and replenished every month that’s still 1k less than 40% yearly production.

Ps this is entirely based on best knowledge available regarding production numbers…

[JSolution]

It’s just customers buying the watch and walking out the door and selling it I would say, not so much the ADs selling them out the back door.

[Jack T]

This thread is just another example of pure conjecture on many of the things about Rolex that are unknowable.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by bp1000

15,000 steel Daytona’s per year

450 currently on c24. If they turned over the entire stock and replenished every month that’s still 1k less than 40% yearly production.

Ps this is entirely based on best knowledge available regarding production numbers…

Really tough to estimate - the turnover guess could be off by some factor in either direction, but then C24 only captures a fraction of the market. E.g., there are 10 Hulks listed in Hong Kong - last time I was there it seemed that every single grey dealer window had that many.

The two biggest grey dealers in my current home town have at least a handful subs between them, but only 1 listed on C24 (with a stock photo). Curiously, the brands for which that grey has new watches on offer are a 1:1 match to the brands carried by the biggest AD in town

PS: My WAG is that a significant fraction of hot models end up at greys (> 10%), but less than the 40% the SA in the OP was quoted with.

[Brew]

Are we to infer that 40% of your SA's inventory . . . .

[1William]

Maybe, but that number seems high. At 40% on a million watches produced means four hundred thousand end up in the Grey Market. That is not counting pre-owned watches already in circulation.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by 1William

Maybe, but that number seems high. At 40% on a million watches produced means four hundred thousand end up in the Grey Market. That is not counting pre-owned watches already in circulation.

Agree but there is a old saga that say many AD staff not always speak from mouth, but may make noises from rear end and inside dress/trousers ,much like a bull - it's called bulls**t.

AD bullsh#te meter which every AD should have on there wall to see if they are telling truth or porkies.

[peterpl]

I WOULD Not be surprised if it was even MORE than 40%.

Ppl will do anything when it comes to $$$$. Flipping a watch from an AD to a Gray is not illegal and its not going to hurt anyone. There would be 1000s and 10000s of ppl willing to do it.

Your not dealing drugs, killing or committing fraud. Selling directly to the grays is probably the most profitable hustle an AD can do right now that is totally legal.

Many are doing it. Most gray dealers have very very close relationships with many ADs they get their watches from.

[Daveclock]

As they say its got to be a 5h*t Ton of watches for sure
Percentage we could only guess at from a secret production run from a secretive charity controlled entity.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by padi56

Agree but there is a old saga that say many AD staff not always speak from mouth, but may make noises from rear end and inside dress/trousers ,much like a bull - it's called bulls**t.

AD bullsh#te meter which every AD should have on there wall to see if they are telling truth or porkies.

Indeed.

OP this is not directed to you, so please do not take offense. This is a very common pattern.

But it amazes me when people put stock in off the cuff remarks by salespeople. Would they believe what a salesperson said for other products?

And it amazes me even more that people put stock when someone (who they may have never met in person, or even know their real name) says "My AD said."

Think about that for a minute. You don't know and cannot vet the salesperson. You do not know and cannot vet the AD the salesperson works for. And you do not know and cannot vet the person who allegedly told the AD and the person who told the person who told the person that told the AD that told the salesperson.

But then I guess this is not a new thing. I cannot count the times I am at a country store and somebody says "Joe says that Jim told him that Bob has it on god authority that..."

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Benzsiam

40% seems too high, I think it is about 25% and mostly from ADs (not the boutiques).

The actual data shows it’s much much lower.

Two other threads (one claiming 95%, the other claiming 75%) were easily debunked.

Every 1% = app. 800 Rolexes EACH MONTH that supposedly flip to secondary resellers worldwide. Look at C24, eBay, ALL our trusted sellers and ask yourself, “How many NEW listings for BNIB unworn Rolexes with NEW warranty cards get posted every month?”

You’ll find the answer is much lower than you think. It’s maybe a few thousand per month. It’s not 20,000 pieces per month. Not even close.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by bp1000

I don’t think that’s accurate

We know Rolex puts out about 1m units per year.

We have established stuff like the steel Daytona is probably about 1.5% to 2% of that. Using it as an example due to its “flip-ability”

The various market places don’t have the cumulative inventory to support this 40% claim.

15,000 steel Daytona’s per year

450 currently on c24. If they turned over the entire stock and replenished every month that’s still 1k less than 40% yearly production.

Ps this is entirely based on best knowledge available regarding production numbers…

Filter by New/unworn
Filter by Available now to weed out the phony listings
Filter by 2020 or 2021

It’s only 229 units.

Ridiculously low percentage.

[fsprow]

The answer is no one knows and it doesn't make any difference. The market is legal and no one is forced to buy or sell a watch.

Speculation is fun but of very little value.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by scooba

Hi , I was talking with a SA yesterday and what she said suprised me , To her understanding 40% off Rolex new inventory ends up with the Greys . I think she must mean 40% of Professional models end up with greys

Interested in your opinions

Who knows the percentage. It’s a guess. It begs the question; is she basing that on her experience and first hand knowledge. Did you ask her?

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by padi56

Agree but there is a old saga that say many AD staff not always speak from mouth, but may make noises from rear end and inside dress/trousers ,much like a bull - it's called bulls**t.

AD bullsh#te meter which every AD should have on there wall to see if they are telling truth or porkies.

Nice one Padi. I think you should bring out the BS meter more often on TRF. Sadly, it’s become a rumor mill lately around the forum, and with much less horological Discussions.

[Bizcut1]

This is the bullsh*t people want to talk about...that's the way it goes.

Truth is, most here are watch investment enthusiasts not watch enthusiasts.

[2001jesper]

Part goes directly to grey, part goes directly to "enthusiasts" who intends to flip immediately, part goes to an end user

[scooba]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Indeed.

OP this is not directed to you, so please do not take offense. This is a very common pattern.

But it amazes me when people put stock in off the cuff remarks by salespeople. Would they believe what a salesperson said for other products?

And it amazes me even more that people put stock when someone (who they may have never met in person, or even know their real name) says "My AD said."

Think about that for a minute. You don't know and cannot vet the salesperson. You do not know and cannot vet the AD the salesperson works for. And you do not know and cannot vet the person who allegedly told the AD and the person who told the person who told the person that told the AD that told the salesperson.

But then I guess this is not a new thing. I cannot count the times I am at a country store and somebody says "Joe says that Jim told him that Bob has it on god authority that..."

I have been buying Rolex for 28 years and things have changed massively,I used to enjoy looking in the window at all the different models and comparing dial colours etc, select what you like and go and negotiate . I really don’t like the business now , Some Salesman making out it’s a privilege to be allowed to buy something you don’t really even need .

The young girl is my favourite SA and I’m sure she told me in good faith , She is pleasant and helpful but I wasn’t going to say you are talking rubbish , I couldn’t see 40% being correct that’s why I suggested she may have-been talking about Professional models

BTW I don’t take offence to any comments as the OP

[gerry100]

what makes her guess significant?

[scooba]

Originally Posted by gerry100

what makes her guess significant?

I have no idea . All I was saying is she mentioned 40% are ending up with Greys

I don’t care if 50% or 5% end up with greys , it was just polite conversation with a young lady who is a SA . Who BTW when she was having Rolex Training at London ,Brought back a rather nice Rolex diving history book and kindly took me to one side and said I see this and thought you would enjoy reading it , Nice thought and she didn’t have to ,So I will always talk to her as it’s politeness

[ZOOK]

Originally Posted by scooba

Hi , I was talking with a SA yesterday and what she said suprised me , To her understanding 40% off Rolex new inventory ends up with the Greys . I think she must mean 40% of Professional models end up with greys

Interested in your opinions

Maybe she meant, her boss sells 40% of the Rolex watches he receives to a Grey.

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by scooba

I have been buying Rolex for 28 years and things have changed massively,I used to enjoy looking in the window at all the different models and comparing dial colours etc, select what you like and go and negotiate . I really don’t like the business now , Some Salesman making out it’s a privilege to be allowed to buy something you don’t really even need .

The young girl is my favourite SA and I’m sure she told me in good faith , She is pleasant and helpful but I wasn’t going to say you are talking rubbish , I couldn’t see 40% being correct that’s why I suggested she may have-been talking about Professional models

BTW I don’t take offence to any comments as the OP

40 percent of stainless so called "sports" watches?
Absolutely.

[Daryl]

Originally Posted by zook

maybe she meant, her boss sells 40% of the rolex watches he receives to a grey.

+1

[Seddyspaghetti]

Originally Posted by ZOOK

Maybe she meant, her boss sells 40% of the Rolex watches he receives to a Grey.

+1

[scooba]

There is no way they would sell to greys , That is one thing I do know