Vintage Rolex Undervalued?

[illiguy]

The modern stuff seems to get all the love and appreciation (both financially and from social media). I’m fine with that.

It just seems to me that vintage is relatively undervalued because of the modern hype. Don’t get me wrong, everything is pricey, but I’ve found myself drawn to vintage of late for many reasons, including when compared to the insane pricing on the new stuff.

Anyone make the jump to vintage from modern recently?

[springer]

Reminds me of...........

You can lead the horse to water but you can't make him drink.

Sometimes if you hold the horse's head under water long enough, and while gasping for air, he just might open his mouth long enough to taste the water.

jP

I drank the vintage water a long time ago and haven't looked back. The herd mentality is alive and well with modern watches.

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by springer

Reminds me of...........

You can lead the horse to water but you can't make him drink.

Sometimes if you hold the horse's head under water long enough, and while gasping for air, he just might open his mouth long enough to taste the water.

jP

I drank the vintage water a long time ago and haven't looked back. The herd mentality is alive and well with modern watches.

Well said.

[Old Expat Beast]

Vintage Rolex prices have skyrocketed here in Hong Kong in recent years. I don't really follow global prices any more.

[Dan S]

Modern watch, what's that? I have one from 1999, does that count?

[ericthecmh]

For me, it's not as much about what the price is but how much the value will grow in a few years. If it's undervalued now, maybe that's a good thing. Buy low sell high?

[KY..]

Modern Rolex watches are very nice but for me vintage Rolex bleed the character and personality of Rolex DNA…

[L.K Johnson]

Originally Posted by illiguy

The modern stuff seems to get all the love and appreciation (both financially and from social media). I’m fine with that.

It just seems to me that vintage is relatively undervalued because of the modern hype. Don’t get me wrong, everything is pricey, but I’ve found myself drawn to vintage of late for many reasons, including when compared to the insane pricing on the new stuff.

Anyone make the jump to vintage from modern recently?

I agree, especially if you compare to the 6-digit sport Rolexes!
I debated 1680 red and 1675 lack of price development in a previous thread. It feel like they have parked in the same price region and been there for quite some time.

My take on this
-The lack of glossy dial on the 1675 and 1680 that more or less all 5 and 6 digit have which make the watches look old and might not appeal to the young and “successful” crowd
-Instagram buzz with more modern watches “on display” (on the right people) then vintage pieces
-The 6 digits solidness and finish with the new movement and extended guarantee are new great additions

Their are a couple of vintage and neo-vintage models that I have seen great price development in and they are:
1601
1803 (even 18038/18238)
OQ 17000
OQ 17014

The above are just on top of my mind right now, might be others as well…

[shaunylw]

Vintage is up for sure. I sold a 14060 to a buddy for 5k about two years ago. Swiss only, rock solid, it’s doubled. Sold a 16570 for about 6k two years ago, it’s almost doubled. I think the floor was fairly low for some really great pieces, and it’s now caught up and surpassed those levels. I wish it were different, lot of vintage pieces i want!

[L.K Johnson]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

Vintage is up for sure. I sold a 14060 to a buddy for 5k about two years ago. Swiss only, rock solid, it’s doubled. Sold a 16570 for about 6k two years ago, it’s almost doubled. I think the floor was fairly low for some really great pieces, and it’s now caught up and surpassed those levels. I wish it were different, lot of vintage pieces i want!

I would consider the 5-digit watches with sapphire Neo-vintage and not vintage…

[Chris]

There was a recent thread where this very topic was debated, 6 digit v 5 and 4 digit refs. Most favoured 6 digit, complaining about the clunkiness of the bracelet, and how badly they were made, and why would you possibly want an outdated movement. I only have vintage the newest being 2004 DJ, im sure if a mint sub gmt daytona, came to the market, im sure these very same people would be tripping over their cheque books to buy it.

[Pocosso]

I would not underestimate the knowledge that the Vintage World require.
I am sure the main reason of the booming of the contemporary references are multiple and important.
Vintage require study, passion, research, time to bother experts like Springer with thousand of questions, many people are just driven by liking the object itself.

In poor words Contemporary pieces are easier.

[trader_tom]

For a modern piece, as long as you pay a good amount of money, you will get one.

For a vintage piece, sometimes even money cannot find. Take a rare 6542 piece as example. Some collectors just buy and never sell…

I can see people are now buying modern, and i understand.

[Avs Fan]

I love the vintage esthetic. Maybe even more than modern. I just know I'm not smart enough to make good vintage decisions. I see many posts asking for advice on a certain piece. Many look so good to me - only to discover the smart people point out 10 things which are wrong.

[3wheeler7]

Smaller 34/36mm 6 digit SS models appear to be the best buys at the moment, but they'll have their day once the "dinner plate on the wrist" fad wears off.
Oyster Date
Air King
Air King Date
Datejust

[illiguy]

Originally Posted by Avs Fan

I love the vintage esthetic. Maybe even more than modern. I just know I'm not smart enough to make good vintage decisions. I see many posts asking for advice on a certain piece. Many look so good to me - only to discover the smart people point out 10 things which are wrong.

Buy the seller and find a good watchmaker.

[brock37988]

Looking to add more vintage to my collection over time


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[swish77]

There's room for both vintage and modern in a collection. The big difference is you can always buy a modern Rolex, price issues aside. They're readily available.

With vintage, the great examples are getting harder and harder to find, and they're not making them anymore, of course. Doesn't matter how much money you're willing to spend, sometimes you just can't find that example that checks all of your boxes.

And prices on vintage will continue to climb. Prices on modern Rolexes will come down at some point, IMHO. Simple supply and demand.

[KY..]

Originally Posted by swish77

The big difference is you can always buy a modern Rolex, price issues aside. They're readily available.

With vintage, the great examples are getting harder and harder to find, and they're not making them anymore, of course. Doesn't matter how much money you're willing to spend, sometimes you just can't find that example that checks all of your boxes.

And prices on vintage will continue to climb.

Ding! Ding! Ding! 100%
My vintage Rolex pieces are nice and authentic but not perfect at all.
I bought them so long ago that all are minimum doubled in price across the board.
And I don’t think they will decline in value because vintage seems mostly undervalued overall like the slow and methodical turtle in the race with the rabbit.

[3wheeler7]

My mistake - I meant to say 5 digit SS models appear to be the best buys at the moment.

[L.K Johnson]

I actually joined RolexWorlds Instagram live feed this week and he was showing of his collection of modern watches (mostly Rolexes from what I recall). During the feed he was discussing value and price development with the audience and I took the time to ask what his thoughts were regarding price development and value when it comes to vintage pieces like red 1680 and 1675. His answer was that it was a jungle to get things right when buying vintage Rolex and that it’s really easy to get fu**ed if you don’t know what you are doing when you step in to the vintage Rolex scene…if that is a common opinion among people, the price development will surely have a slower roll than modern Rolex pieces…

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by L.K Johnson

I agree, especially if you compare to the 6-digit sport Rolexes!
I debated 1680 red and 1675 lack of price development in a previous thread. It feel like they have parked in the same price region and been there for quite some time.

My take on this
-The lack of glossy dial on the 1675 and 1680 that more or less all 5 and 6 digit have which make the watches look old and might not appeal to the young and “successful” crowd
-Instagram buzz with more modern watches “on display” (on the right people) then vintage pieces
-The 6 digits solidness and finish with the new movement and extended guarantee are new great additions

Their are a couple of vintage and neo-vintage models that I have seen great price development in and they are:
1601
1803 (even 18038/18238)
OQ 17000
OQ 17014

The above are just on top of my mind right now, might be others as well…

4 and 5 digit Day Dates are best buys right now imo. They’ve certainly gone up but are still a ton of watch for the money. I think gold and TT are having a bit of a resurgence. A 36mm 18238 is virtually indistinguishable from a 128238 from a glance. Sub 20k vs 40k+ for these two watches doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.

[GST15]

Originally Posted by Dan S

Modern watch, what's that? I have one from 1999, does that count?

Here is my 1999 16200. Just back from recent service!

IMG_4183.jpeg

[PVR]

LK Johnson: I get asked the same question all the time and your answer touches on what I feel the big problem is with vintage.

Question: Why is Vintage standing still or moving more slowly than modern prices which are going crazy?

I don't have hard numbers but, I would bet that there are less vintage subs than modern subs and the same for all of the other sports models. So, with a smaller number of watches and the fact that every year the number decreases.. why wouldn't vintage fly faster than modern?

Your answer hits it.. With what's going on out there in vintage you need to be a seasoned expert to be able to buy anything. Fakes are rampant and there are some very very good fakes now. Franken's are also everywhere with incorrect or aftermarket parts on almost every vintage you see for sale. The old saying "vintage is a minefield" is a fact, if you don't know everything about the model you are looking to buy then you better buy the seller, but even then there are good sellers that go bad all the time.

So, in the end Vintage is suffering as a result. I can point the fingers at the Italian dealers, but its not just them, there are plenty of shenanigans going on all over the world. Where there is profit to be made, there is shadiness.

One last quick modern story.. Woman I know buys a Datejust for her husbands birthday from a well known grey market seller. This seller sells over 1 million a month in modern only. Her husband takes the watch to the local AD for an insurance appraisal and they tell him that the watch has been "altered or modified" and they wont appraise it. He brings it to Rolex NYC and they tell him the same thing. What could be done on a 2022 41mm Datejust that was sold one week earlier? Someone wanted a blue dial instead of black so the AD takes the entire movement with the dial out of one model and into another. Both 41mm's. Rolex sees the dial and movement don't match the internal records and now the watch is flagged.

So plenty of shady stuff going on in modern too, you just don't hear about it as much. Not yet anyway...

[Dan S]

Threads discussing watches as investments are incredibly tiresome.

The premise of this thread is so absurd that I really didn't expect people to take it seriously. The only context in which vintage Rolex vintage can be considered to be "standing still" or "undervalued" is the ridiculously overhyped and manipulated new Rolex market. By any reasonable standard, including vintage or new watches from other brands, vintage Rolex has seen an insane and unmatched run-up in recent years. Even dirt-common matte-dial 5513s have tripled in price over a short timeline.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by 3wheeler7

My mistake - I meant to say 5 digit SS models appear to be the best buys at the moment.

I don’t disagree but it’s a jungle out there.

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by L.K Johnson

I would consider the 5-digit watches with sapphire Neo-vintage and not vintage…

Valid point

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by L.K Johnson

I actually joined RolexWorlds Instagram live feed this week and he was showing of his collection of modern watches (mostly Rolexes from what I recall). During the feed he was discussing value and price development with the audience and I took the time to ask what his thoughts were regarding price development and value when it comes to vintage pieces like red 1680 and 1675. His answer was that it was a jungle to get things right when buying vintage Rolex and that it’s really easy to get fu**ed if you don’t know what you are doing when you step in to the vintage Rolex scene…if that is a common opinion among people, the price development will surely have a slower roll than modern Rolex pieces…

Exactly. The level of knowledge necessary to participate in the vintage market is very high, and rising all the time. The frauds are better and more common.
Spend a few months on this forum reading the posts about Vintage Rolex and you'll promise God you'll never buy a vintage watch.
I think that the people who are really versed in this field have no idea how complex it looks to novices, and the cost of making a mistake is prohibitive.

[rushca01]

Being a big fan of the “neo-vintage” era of watches I tend to think they are bit over valued and I say that just having spent more than I should have on a 16570 and 16610LV. Neo vintage meaning 5 digit era with luminova or super luminova dials. References like the 16570 were trading at 3,500-4,000 just 3 years ago, the 16600 was around 5,500-6,500, 16610LV’s were 7,500-8,000, and 16710’s were 5,200-8,000 depending on complete sets/condition etc. Has inflation kept up with the MSRP on these and that doesn’t consider that most of these reference were likely bought at a discount when new?

The neo vintage 5 digit reference is my favorite reference era, I buy all my watches to wear. To me they are the last of the “true” tool watch Rolex’s which to me is part of the allure the brand brings. Love the adventurer persona the brand is steeped in history with, not the hype of today. Although, I wouldn’t turn down a 126710 :)

[RFC]

Originally Posted by Dan S

Threads discussing watches as investments are incredibly tiresome.

The premise of this thread is so absurd that I really didn't expect people to take it seriously. The only context in which vintage Rolex vintage can be considered to be "standing still" or "undervalued" is the ridiculously overhyped and manipulated new Rolex market. By any reasonable standard, including vintage or new watches from other brands, vintage Rolex has seen an insane and unmatched run-up in recent years. Even dirt-common matte-dial 5513s have tripled in price over a short timeline.

I want a “dirt common matte dial 5513” to add to my modern and neo-vintage Subs. I’m trusting that buying the seller and having a trusted watchmaker will get me there even at the top of what I’m willing to pay. There are no bargains out there for good examples of the vintage Subs and I’ve been on the hunt for over a year.