Watch prices increasing again?

[socal5567]

With all that has happened with the banks recently are people looking to hold assets more than cash again? Gold up, crypto up, i see watch prices on the rise also...

[bp1000]

I’ll keep collecting what I like, providing I can and if the AD will sell it to me.

[mgsooner]

Speak it into existence.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by bp1000

I’ll keep collecting what I like, providing I can and if the AD will sell it to me.

Exactly, biggest problem is getting these SAs to cooperate with us...

[CarlOver]

Prices at AD still the same. ��

[Podmornica]

If the stock market and bank crashes, the dollar will be the only thing you want to collect .. It's been like that every time .. Cash is king in that type of scenario ..

The smart money will then buy the crash with the dollar ..

[Sharpjim]

I have been following the pricing on Ebay and Chrono24 and in the last couple of weeks and more so in the last week I am seeing significant price drops. I think the recent Silicon Valley Bank failure has weakened consumer confidence. I also think other financial institutions will be put under the microscope and that is going to exacerbate a further weakening in the economic climate. I am in no hurry to buy at the moment so waiting to see if prices drop further is my plan.

[Mrhenish]

So it’s not happening anymore?

[Mr Ben]

It already happened. And it will happen again. Maybe harder - maybe not.

[hlash99]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

If the stock market and bank crashes, the dollar will be the only thing you want to collect .. It's been like that every time .. Cash is king in that type of scenario ..

The smart money will then buy the crash with the dollar ..

Agreed, if everything tanks it’ll be a buying opportunity in the market. People may actually dump their watches/jewelry if they’re in need of money.

Also, It seems watch prices and the stock market track fairly closely which makes sense.

[the dark knight]

In the last 3 years or so, haven't watch prices most closely correlated with crypto? Could have sworn I saw a chart somewhere.

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by socal5567

With all that has happened with the banks recently are people looking to hold assets more than cash again? Gold up, crypto up, i see watch prices on the rise also...

I could be wrong, but I feel like watch prices (esp certain Rolex models) briefly go up in the weeks leading into W&W and formerly Baselworld.

There are always certain rumors floating around about what gets discontinued, so the grey market dealers seem to raise prices accordingly to try to get ahead of that. Or maybe demand really increases as people try to bet on something being discontinued and making a quick buck on it a couple of weeks later.

[Vince_76]

Liquidity has dried up, just look at the all the bumps from sellers and repeat listings.

Intra-grey transactions are the best bellwether, and many refs are continuing to drop. I haven’t seen any “hype” model bounce back, though some Rolexes have slowed on their decline. AP has continued to drop precipitously.

Refer to WatchOut subforum for further discussion

[GGGMT]

Originally Posted by socal5567

With all that has happened with the banks recently are people looking to hold assets more than cash again? Gold up, crypto up, i see watch prices on the rise also...

Yep this is happening. Believe. Though I’ve only been buying recently from AD (3 times in last year), where price are going up.


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[ronricks]

Originally Posted by socal5567

With all that has happened with the banks recently are people looking to hold assets more than cash again? Gold up, crypto up, i see watch prices on the rise also...

[Brich436]

I've only been in this game 20 years - I'm sure some more experienced members can chime in.

What I have seen is the luxury watch market takes a HUGE hit when the stock market and the economy go down. You can't eat the Rolex. What you can do is turn it into cash - quick!

Watches are some of the easiest and first things to sell when someone loses a job. Prices will not be down at the AD but you will be able to get "sought after" models because people will turn them down or pass on buying them altogether. I'm hoping a nice condition 14060M comes down to about $5-6k and then I will strike!

[Calatrava r]

A few YouTube folks have said the used market has bottomed and is on the rise.
Hard to tell where it is headed.

[RolexSimon]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

A few YouTube folks have said the used market has bottomed and is on the rise.
Hard to tell where it is headed.

I would have said I agreed with that until the bank crises x2 during the last few weeks - expect another turn down methinks.

[yetione]

Luxury items like rolexes and boats and second / third homes always lag well behind the market... meaning, if the stock market is trending up, the luxury market will trend up after a certain lag. The reverse is also true. I would be shocked if watch prices have actually bottomed out, because I'm only now seeing some other luxury tier items start to really fall in price. I only buy from the AD and I only buy pieces I want to own - not sell - so I don't really care one way or another.

[Xelor5513]

Originally Posted by garyk

Exactly, biggest problem is getting these SAs to cooperate with us...

[-94-]

Originally Posted by Brich436

I've only been in this game 20 years - I'm sure some more experienced members can chime in.

What I have seen is the luxury watch market takes a HUGE hit when the stock market and the economy go down. You can't eat the Rolex. What you can do is turn it into cash - quick!

Watches are some of the easiest and first things to sell when someone loses a job. Prices will not be down at the AD but you will be able to get "sought after" models because people will turn them down or pass on buying them altogether. I'm hoping a nice condition 14060M comes down to about $5-6k and then I will strike!

You be happy when someone lose job and starving and pay little then I don't agree people life not a game

[askdanny]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

A few YouTube folks have said the used market has bottomed and is on the rise.
Hard to tell where it is headed.

Are those Youtube folks also grey dealers?

[daveswordfish]

If you’re still in the “watch as an investment vehicle” camp, now is the time to sell every in-production piece that currently commands more than MSRP. Maybe you wait to see if anything gets discontinued, but that’s about it. If anyone tells you different, they have something to gain by doing so.


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[beshannon]

All the Rolex investors will be thrilled

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Brich436

I've only been in this game 20 years - I'm sure some more experienced members can chime in.

What I have seen is the luxury watch market takes a HUGE hit when the stock market and the economy go down. You can't eat the Rolex. What you can do is turn it into cash - quick!

Watches are some of the easiest and first things to sell when someone loses a job. Prices will not be down at the AD but you will be able to get "sought after" models because people will turn them down or pass on buying them altogether. I'm hoping a nice condition 14060M comes down to about $5-6k and then I will strike!

That's exactly what happened during the great recession, and watches got cheap because people were selling them to raise cash. Could happen again, but circumstances are pretty different at the moment. The layoffs have largely been limited to coastal tech companies. Out here in flyover country, the labor market is still very tight. Lots of hiring still happening.

The US is also still AWASH in cash and liquidity, and has been for some time now. Until that's drained out and layoffs step up, I don't see the AD marketplace changing much. I think allocations and deliveries stay steady this year. Maybe a few more people saying no and allowing people further down the list to take advantage.

[GGGMT]

This is precisely what’s going on. Nobodies like me getting some allocations because people higher up on the list or say no, but it’s still tight.


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[MILGAUSS88]

Really? Chart for overall watch market:

[MILGAUSS88]

Here is the chart for Rolex watches specifically.

[1William]

The market for watches/stocks or any other traded item is typically viewed in the short term and not the long term. Excluding extreme spikes and dips the market for Rolex watches is strong. With most desirable SS Sport models still selling for significantly over retail. The key to buying/selling/trading is where did you enter the market. If at msrp then you are fine. If you paid 50k for a SS Daytona-C then you have an issue should you decide to sell or trade it. All of this conversation of gloom and doom just rolls on no matter what the markets are doing. If up, them some predict the fall, if down, then it will continue. I do not have a crystal ball to determine what will happen just my almost 60 years of life experience and more than thirty years of watch buying/selling/trading experience to rely on. Nothing in the luxury world gets cheaper for the long run. That is msrp prices. The market above that msrp price goes up and down depending on the brand and the model. Buy the watches you want, for the best price you can get and enjoy. Let time take care of the values.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by 1William

The market for watches/stocks or any other traded item is typically viewed in the short term and not the long term. Excluding extreme spikes and dips the market for Rolex watches is strong. With most desirable SS Sport models still selling for significantly over retail. The key to buying/selling/trading is where did you enter the market. If at msrp then you are fine. If you paid 50k for a SS Daytona-C then you have an issue should you decide to sell or trade it. All of this conversation of gloom and doom just rolls on no matter what the markets are doing. If up, them some predict the fall, if down, then it will continue. I do not have a crystal ball to determine what will happen just my almost 60 years of life experience and more than thirty years of watch buying/selling/trading experience to rely on. Nothing in the luxury world gets cheaper for the long run. That is msrp prices. The market above that msrp price goes up and down depending on the brand and the model. Buy the watches you want, for the best price you can get and enjoy. Let time take care of the values.

Really great post William, worth repeating.