Are Nautilus and Aquanaut prices crazy to YOU?

[jgottsman11]

Another thread today in here has me thinking, do you personally think prices on the Aquanaut and Nautilus (mainly 5712, 5711, 5164a, 5167a for this poll) are high and crazy?

Please explain why if you care to

[kultschar]

Not as crazy as they were but yeah bonkers

[huncho]

yes for both. the aquanuat is just way too much for something on a rubber strap imo and while i love the 5711/5712 i feel like the fact that you can get an AP for 1/2 or 1/3 of the price is insane. might be a hot take but you get a lot more for a lot less with a RO. you can even get a gold RO for the price of a 5711 right? i haven't been following prices too much

[HMHM]

I think at MSRP, both are fine. They are good watches, finished to a reasonably high standard. Add in the Patek Philippe “tax” and it would pretty much be the MSRP. Of course people will say that a Seiko tells time as accurately, but we aren’t going to say Seiko = Patek, are we?

I personally like the Aquanaut for its rubber strap. I would 100% agree it’s hyped up to the moon, but it’s comfortable, it’s unique and despite its increased prominence these days, many people still don’t recognise a rubber strap Aquanaut as something special on the wrist, and that’s pretty cool!

[mobster600]

The 5711, Aquanaut and some Calatrava's all share the same movement.

Explain to me why the 5711 is $100k+?

Surely nobody buys a watch for the movement. Its for everyone knowing you got a 100k parked on your wrist. Its a status symbol at that point

[dmash]

Yeah it’s reasonable that a basic steel 3 hander fetches 6 figures.

(Sarcasm)

[Bmats]

I’m partial to an aquanaut and like the strap. But agree that the secondary market prices are crazy - particularly for the stainless steel references you mention (but all really). Of course, it’s no different than when white dial Daytonas were going for 3X msrp for an even more produced reference.

So agree prices are outrageous at what they are, but still really like mine.



Felt we needed a picture…

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[Rolexavidfan]

More than a decade ago, I knew we have something special on the 5711 and 5164a which IMO were not looked upon “seriously” by some enthusiasts. Nothing wrong with that. Those who bought during those times perhaps believed passionately about these models despite having basic complication or none. Now that the table has turned, there are varied reactions, discussions or even loud murmurs about the reasonableness of their prices. My take in this — “weather, weather only” colloquially meaning the tide will probably turn the other way again in the future.

Chill and let’s enjoy our watch hobby!


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[Mathematoxic]

Before the watch market went crazy, watch collectors bought watches they love. The Nautilus is indeed a very beautiful watch but due to its retail price not many are motivated to buy, especially precious metal ones. It’s not that collectors then do not have the financial capability to acquire though.
Today is a different story. We all know most nautilus are trading above retail, in fact way above. Collectors, flippers, people from all walks of life want a piece of it due to this situation. I believe most Nautilus will retain their value(retail) like Rolexes but unlikely to be at today’s prices.
Just my personal opinion, Cheers all.

[fsprow]

The market is the market. I don’t worry about whether it is “crazy” overpriced or “fair”. I just decide whether to accept that price or not. There were few if any complaints when many watches were going for a “discount “. Also not a good plan to speculate on future market direction in my view.

[Andy0331]

I think current secondary market prices are crazy, but MSRP is fair. Understanding that MSRP is not the reality for all but a few clients, if the balance shifts back to retail (eventually it will), I don't think the prices of either line are way out of whack compared to any other high end manufacturer.

So yes, the "real" prices are crazy & no, I'm not a buyer, as the value just isn't there for me.

[Benzsiam]

The market price is the price that the seller can sell their merchandise. If the buyers like us don't buy at the crazy high price, the market price eventually will have to come down.

The secondary market buyers are the one to blame for the crazy high price.

[Etschell]

The only pp sports watch I would ever buy is the 5164r. At retail it is still too much.

[Mr Ben]

Yes - completely crazy. I’d be happy paying the retail price from about 20 years ago - I wouldn’t even pay current retail so definitely getting nowhere near grey prices.

Everyone has amounts they are and aren’t comfortable spending and/ or wearing. I set an arbitrary limit - if I can’t add it to my insurance policy, it’s too much to spend on a watch.

[Knappo 1307]

Originally Posted by jgottsman11

Another thread today in here has me thinking, do you personally think prices on the Aquanaut and Nautilus (mainly 5712, 5711, 5164a, 5167a for this poll) are high and crazy?

Please explain why if you care to

Originally Posted by mobster600

The 5711, Aquanaut and some Calatrava's all share the same movement.

Explain to me why the 5711 is $100k+?

Surely nobody buys a watch for the movement. Its for everyone knowing you got a 100k parked on your wrist. Its a status symbol at that point

Hype, FOMO....

[messikens]

Outstandingly crazy.
All of these are basic three handers!

What's more you can get an AP with a much better looking bracelet for 40% off the price.

I guess the market tells you what something is worth but to me there's no way it's that much better than an AP

[Apheaven]

Originally Posted by messikens

Outstandingly crazy.
All of these are basic three handers!

What's more you can get an AP with a much better looking bracelet for 40% off the price.

I guess the market tells you what something is worth but to me there's no way it's that much better than an AP

On that note, I have noticed the AP 15202st have become attractively priced as of late…wondering where is the floor on the price?


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[jgottsman11]

Originally Posted by Apheaven

On that note, I have noticed the AP 15202st have become attractively priced as of late…wondering where is the floor on the price?


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Get the 15300 instead. Better water resistance, 3 hander, and a little thicker for daily wear than the 15202.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by jgottsman11

Get the 15300 instead. Better water resistance, 3 hander, and a little thicker for daily wear than the 15202.

Actually agree with you.
Shocking how much the price for 15202 has fallen over the last 18months but outside of having/owning "the original" the 15300 is a better buy to me for above reasons. Add in that it's still a fraction of the 15202 price as well!

[Richard4K]

I think we just experienced our first "cycle." There will be many more to come and especially once financialziation of watches become a thing over the next few years.

Just a matter of time before hedge funds start buying up/investing into 5711 and 5164s

[77T]

People state “before the Watch market went crazy”.

I’d submit that trend started before the financial crisis in 2008.

As someone mentioned, SS white dialed Daytona’s went 3x of MSRP.

As we settle into a new normal - with Aquanaut prices backtracking from their recent rise to now just about 3x - it isn’t more crazy than it was in 2006 methinks.


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[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by Apheaven

On that note, I have noticed the AP 15202st have become attractively priced as of late…wondering where is the floor on the price?


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I'm thinking about it too.

There are a ton for sale on Moda with prices from 61.5-68 and it doesn't seem like any sales at all.

I saw this table for it:

2016 $21,833 –
2017 $21,600 -1.08%
2018 $24,500 11.84%
2019 $43,500 43.68%
2020 $34,500 -26.09%
2021 $69,250 50.18%
2022 $105,750 52.71%

Seems like there is a lot of room all the way down to 2019 prices?

Still tempted to buy and enjoy. If I lose 20K oh well.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

I'm thinking about it too.

There are a ton for sale on Moda with prices from 61.5-68 and it doesn't seem like any sales at all.

I saw this table for it:

2016 $21,833 –
2017 $21,600 -1.08%
2018 $24,500 11.84%
2019 $43,500 43.68%
2020 $34,500 -26.09%
2021 $69,250 50.18%
2022 $105,750 52.71%

Seems like there is a lot of room all the way down to 2019 prices?

Still tempted to buy and enjoy. If I lose 20K oh well.

it makes sense. the watch went up 5x in 6 years. that is not sustainable. itll probablly settle in the low 50s.

i for one am hoping the 15450or drops down back to the 40s. if so ill buy one. it was on my radar for a while.

[sski]

Originally Posted by Richard4K

I think we just experienced our first "cycle." There will be many more to come and especially once financialziation of watches become a thing over the next few years.

Just a matter of time before hedge funds start buying up/investing into 5711 and 5164s

tend to agree. As true blue collectors- whether we like it or not, watches have become an asset class. Some resellers have already sort of cornered the mkt. on limited production high end references from Journe, Lange, Patek, etc. (Watchbox, EWC, others.)

Point being- financialization of watches has already happened & that ships already sailed. It maybe a speculative asset class but an asset class nevertheless.

[rrschmieder]

Originally Posted by sski

tend to agree. As true blue collectors- whether we like it or not, watches have become an asset class. Some resellers have already sort of cornered the mkt. on limited production high end references from Journe, Lange, Patek, etc. (Watchbox, EWC, others.)

Point being- financialization of watches has already happened & that ships already sailed. It maybe a speculative asset class but an asset class nevertheless.

I completely agree. Prices will become more cyclical in nature, and I believe watches will evolve/mature as an asset class into the future.

To your point of the larger resellers cornering the market on high-end pieces, I believe part of that is attributed to them not wanting to primarily live off selling low-margin pieces like Subs, GMTs, etc. They have too much overhead, and while there will also be a % of the population that doesn’t mind paying a premium to buy from them, a bit of research/education online will continue to push more people to reputable online dealers/forums and trusted sellers who can price them more aggressively.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by soicanbefree

I'm thinking about it too.

There are a ton for sale on Moda with prices from 61.5-68 and it doesn't seem like any sales at all.

I saw this table for it:

2016 $21,833 –
2017 $21,600 -1.08%
2018 $24,500 11.84%
2019 $43,500 43.68%
2020 $34,500 -26.09%
2021 $69,250 50.18%
2022 $105,750 52.71%

Seems like there is a lot of room all the way down to 2019 prices?

Still tempted to buy and enjoy. If I lose 20K oh well.

Not sure who added the percentages. They are a mess... From 2020 to 2021, for example, the growth rate was just above 100% rather than 50%...

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by ts3

Not sure who added the percentages. They are a mess... From 2020 to 2021, for example, the growth rate was just above 100% rather than 50%...

Not me just copy and pasted from a table on a website about 15202st prices over time.

But good point.

[Calatrava r]

Wealthy people decided they had to have the Nautilus and Aquanaut. They do not care what they cost. 100k over 30K retail is nothing to some people. When these toys are no longer the "in thing" for the super-rich, watch out, the used prices will tank to retail or below. It is strictly demand driven when it comes to secondary market prices.

[mwc5k]

I thought MSRP was high when these were sitting in the cases at the mall near my house.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Wealthy people decided they had to have the Nautilus and Aquanaut. They do not care what they cost. 100k over 30K retail is nothing to some people. When these toys are no longer the "in thing" for the super-rich, watch out, the used prices will tank to retail or below. It is strictly demand driven when it comes to secondary market prices.

Fully agree. These watches are bound to become a lot less fashionable again which people refused to see while the bubble was still inflating. No matter the value, a 5711 or 5167 will remain great do-anything watches if one can live with some scratches and doesn't exist in an area full of watch crime.

Originally Posted by mwc5k

I thought MSRP was high when these were sitting in the cases at the mall near my house.

Where I live there are no Patek ADs in malls and the more sought after Patek sports watches have not been sitting in cases for 10+ years. Here, Patek ADs are located on or near the very best high-end shopping streets in the old city centers. Cultural differences...