Hodinkee is no longer buying inventory and no more collaborations

[N0trub]

Does this say something about the economy? Or could it just be where things are heading. Ben Clymer wrote an article in the daily email i got today from hodinkee. He says they are going back to their roots back to 2008 seems so strange.

[BraveBold]

Makes perfect sense. Overreached at a bad time and were acquisitive at peak values. Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy, etc etc… The economy is cooling as excess savings has been fully depleted and now the rate hikes are more fully biting.

This isn’t over yet.

[amphr1]

Watch market falling. No money to make reselling watches

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[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

This isn’t over yet.

Far from over, they have value and so are pivoting. They still have access to A List people, need to hire (back) quality journalists, etc. This is just a very expected slowdown. Time to rebuild, streamline, etc for the next bubble and continue to gain marketshare NOW as weak hands are shaken out.

jmho

Over? It's not over...

[inadeje]

I don’t want to bring gloom but the luxury goods sector including watches is right in the middle of a category 5 hurricane with no signs of the storm passing anytime soon. It started two years ago. I’m no Nostradamus but my instincts tell me it’s a decade type cycle we’ve entered around 24 months ago. So only 216 months to go.

[77T]

If DavidSW stops acquiring inventory a nadir would be marked.


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[BillA]

Try selling a watch to DavidSW, you will see the lowest offer around.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

I knew something was turning a few months ago when they had a big “Clearance Sale” and they had a 116600 listed for $13K.

[the dark knight]

I don't think it's economy related, this isn't 2008-2009. As the watch market has been declining the last 2 years, stocks, real estate, gold, crypto, they've all reached new ATHs. People are still spending money, esp well-off people that can afford watches.

IMO it's pure pandemic spending. People spent on goods vs services. And obviously a lot of spend was front loaded as well. People that may have bought 3 watches over the next 10 years bought all 3 already because they had nowhere else to spend money.

So people now prefer to spend on experiences/services plus those that would be open to buying a watch probably already bought the one they want.

Not a good recipe for the industry.

EDIT: BTW, sooner or later we are going to hit a serious economic downturn. To suggest otherwise is going against history. So imagine what the watch market will look like then.

[sambb]

Didnt Ben cash in though - he got paid at the peak. the market is slowly moving downwards, but trusted sellers like davidsw and others know the market so well, that they just pay a lot less for wholesale inventory. In other words, they just pay a lot less for the piece, and still can turn a profit. Same thing happening in the EV market - go get a quote for an EV car from a dealer to sell back - will be VERY low. Some dealers who overpaid for inventory will falter. The free market points downwards... right? If you are a buyer, the real deals are in non-rolex (vacheron, patek, omega, etc). you can find great deals if you have a piece you truly desire in other maisons

[askdanny]

And I wonder if Dufour is kicking himself for spending $1B+ to build a new production facility.

—Danny

[askdanny]

Originally Posted by N0trub

Does this say something about the economy? Or could it just be where things are heading. Ben Clymer wrote an article in the daily email i got today from hodinkee. He says they are going back to their roots back to 2008 seems so strange.

Your post title says "no more collab," but Ben Clymer in his article said, "We'll continue along with our award-winning limited editions."

So, I take it, Hodinkee is still collaborating?

—Danny

[BillA]

sure, guys like DAvidSW will pay lower prices going forward but he has to have lots of inventory bought at higher prices. That has to eventually cause a cash flow problem. Did I not read he opened a brick and mortar store in Florida? The pain not limited to him

[Maleg]

Originally Posted by 77T

If DavidSW stops acquiring inventory a nadir would be marked.


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David has stopped buying several references. He won’t even make an offer.

His overhead is higher than many grays. He has two B&M stores in Florida. He has reason to be more cautious.

[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by the dark knight

I don't think it's economy related, this isn't 2008-2009. As the watch market has been declining the last 2 years, stocks, real estate, gold, crypto, they've all reached new ATHs. People are still spending money, esp well-off people that can afford watches.

IMO it's pure pandemic spending. People spent on goods vs services. And obviously a lot of spend was front loaded as well. People that may have bought 3 watches over the next 10 years bought all 3 already because they had nowhere else to spend money.

So people now prefer to spend on experiences/services plus those that would be open to buying a watch probably already bought the one they want.

Not a good recipe for the industry.

EDIT: BTW, sooner or later we are going to hit a serious economic downturn. To suggest otherwise is going against history. So imagine what the watch market will look like then.

The stock market and speculative assets are no more “the economy” than the reversal of spend down of stimulus and unwind of zero rate policies. Of course it is the economy (in both directions). Excess savings are gone. Credit financing remains but under stress. Anyone building up to superficially high demand is paying the price and will continue to do so. This unwind isn’t over and the overreaching (and overpaying) is nothing new.

We will know when the market normalizes (to reflect the economy) when Tesla stock trades below $100 and btc below $20k. We still have a market built off hopes and dreams - but eventually even a wile e coyote market looks down.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Maleg

David has stopped buying several references. He won’t even make an offer.

His overhead is higher than many grays. He has two B&M stores in Florida. He has reason to be more cautious.

I would expect that - what I meant is no longer buying anything from walk-ins.

I'm not on moda but I trade with those who are. It is tightening up on certain references too.


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[HMHM]

This is effing great news for buyers man! Good old times of getting to cherry pick references at the AD and bargain for discounts are coming back soon!

[Barbara_C]

Originally Posted by BillA

Try selling a watch to DavidSW, you will see the lowest offer around.

I know a guy who tried to sell his date sub 2018 to davidsw last month which i thought he would get 6800 to 7500 .....not even close....on trade he got 6350
to buy out right 5870 if it was in great shape with box......the used market is gone, unless you are really hard up and need money to pay off Tony Soprano...find another way.

[ts3]

The announcement was quite lame. As far as I understand they remain an AD and the conflict of interest of being an AD and a watch magazine remains. Improving the editorial content is a great idea but easier said than done. The task to continuously find interesting topics is so much harder now than in Hodinkee's old days. The all time great watches and the most interesting watch topics have been covered time and again. This coverage is what mostly attracted me to the site. On top, lots of people who got into watches a decade or longer ago seem to be feeling some fatigue. While there are many positive reactions on the website I am not sure Hodinkee can turn the ship around.

[Madman37]

when do you think we will see things like steel Daytona's ceramic down to £15k with this doom and gloom and issues.

[1William]

We will see. I have always like the site and hope some of the articles pick back up.

[Fleetlord]

I knew something was up when they were liquidating "Brand New" Grand Seikos from their "AD" side through their "Pre-owned" side...

I know because I bought one. It was brand new watch with a Hodinkee warranty card. They just dumped the inventory.

[Maleg]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I knew something was up when they were liquidating "Brand New" Grand Seikos from their "AD" side through their "Pre-owned" side...

I know because I bought one. It was brand new watch with a Hodinkee warranty card. They just dumped the inventory.

That’s interesting. GS was buying back inventory for a time. Hodinkee chose to liquidate through their used side. Do you think the sale prices were more than a wholesale buyback on the pre owned side?

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by 1William

We will see. I have always like the site and hope some of the articles pick back up.

Exact same I’ve always enjoyed Hodinkee (maybe more in the past), but they really take a shellacking here at times.

I agree with Steven, getting back to their journalistic routes would be nice to see… just don’t know if that’s makes them enough money.

[nicon]

They are still watch dealer which makes them completely incredible when it comes to watch reviews. There are no interesting writers on board so I won't expect any interesting in-depth content.

[Blansky]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Exact same I’ve always enjoyed Hodinkee (maybe more in the past), but they really take a shellacking here at times.

I agree with Steven, getting back to their journalistic routes would be nice to see… just don’t know if that’s makes them enough money.

They took a daily shellacking in the comments section on their own site, for every article they printed, as well.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Blansky

They took a daily shellacking in the comments section on their own site, for every article they printed, as well.

Yes, there too and their You Tube channel.

Honestly I’m not sure why so much hate. Sure some of their articles or videos are a bit “fluff” but come on … they’re still better than most IMHO.


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[codecow]

I don’t like how much they moderate the comments.

Overall their site is fine. Their latest Porsche Design collaboration is hopelessly overpriced.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Maleg

That’s interesting. GS was buying back inventory for a time. Hodinkee chose to liquidate through their used side. Do you think the sale prices were more than a wholesale buyback on the pre owned side?

Not sure it was about 30% off retail after the markdown and a coupon.

It was literally brand new. The Warranty Card was dated 10 days prior with the owner name blank. Hodinkee proudly stamped as AD.

They had a number of them. You could tell because the "paper date" was within two weeks..etc.

GS really, really hit the skids in terms of market demand. I bought it because you know...watches...lol. But they can't give them away and nobody is buying them....really collapsed fast.

[Maleg]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Not sure it was about 30% off retail after the markdown and a coupon.

It was literally brand new. The Warranty Card was dated 10 days prior with the owner name blank. Hodinkee proudly stamped as AD.

They had a number of them. You could tell because the "paper date" was within two weeks..etc.

GS really, really hit the skids in terms of market demand. I bought it because you know...watches...lol. But they can't give them away and nobody is buying them....really collapsed fast.

You are right about GS. My AD had a case full and nothing was moving. GS bought most back. The AD has returned to the deep discounts of the pre-bubble days.