Steelman argument for the Cubitus

[EazyE]

Cubitus is getting a lot of hate because it feels like cheap design thinking. I'm interested to get feedback on a different perspective:

We know that nautilus demand far outstrips the supply with no end in sight. That imbalance turns away new customers, makes existing customers unhappy, and distracts from other watches. This is a problem.

The options to solve the problem are:
1. Increasing the supply of the nautilus. TS said he doesn't want to be the nautilus company, so this won't do.
2. Reduce demand directly. I'm not sure how to do this.
3. Substitution: redirect some of the the demand to another watch.

Cubitus is a substitute. If even 20% of customers seeking a nautilus are okay with the cubitus, that will:
– Create space for new customers
– Serve collectors who won't be allocated a nautilus

The cubitus also has the same bracelet as the nautilus. That will make the nautilus less special.

All of these have the effect of reducing demand for the nautilus.

Finally, look at the code 11.59. There are few AP customers purely interested in the code; It is seen as the royal oak stepping stone. AP took a huge design risk, and it seems that is not paying off. Patek is taking the safer route to solve the problem by designing a watch they know at least some customers will be happy with.

The Cubitus makes sense when you start with this problem and work backwards. IMO its a solid business decision made for the benefit of customers


...

Or maybe this is all cognitive dissonance because I've sunk so much money into the brand

[Vasco]

It's an interesting and constructive take :)

I would say that this variation on the Nautilus theme might not solve the problem of overshadowing the traditional models.

But I wonder if Patek didn't have to change their mind because the market has quickly evolved towards metallic, sporty watches now and that he had to rethink the traditional/sporty ratio...

They kept the Gondolo very long until very recently, but it disappeared.

Vacheron's Harmony line was a catastrophy (in terms of sales) and I don't think the 1972 sold well either, or the Toledo, or the Quai de l'isle. Maybe the Santos did.

Aside of round watches, the traditional field doesn't seem to thrive. AP had the opposite, the Jules Audemars didn't sell very well in the 2000's/2010's and it was a RO brand. But they tried bringing back round models next to the RO. Hard to achieve (I find the 11.59 interesting, especially the case).

Patek is still appreciated for the round models (technical mastery and also aesthetically) but the sporty/metallic watches are taking more and more room in the catalogue (read "in the sales figures").

I'm not sure that killing the Nautilus will solve the problem (nor I think that it's Patek's intention) and the Cubitus is more of a niche model than a new main line-up.

They saw the introduction of square watches lately and maybe thought this could be something to explore.

[jgottsman11]

My take is that it's just a huge miss. TS always talked of making something more affordable for the entry level collector of Patek. If this watch was say 38mm, then great that would be a nice size for this square design. but this thing is just a complete mess of a model.

[enthusiast]

Originally Posted by EazyE

Cubitus is getting a lot of hate because it feels like cheap design thinking.

By all means: It is cheap design thinking.

What makes it so much worse is years and years of TS building suspense that something different is in the works and that he does not want PP to be a Nautilus company.

He wanted to introduce an affordable watch for new customers.

What did PP deliver at the end of the day? After a lot of marketing BS, we got a more expensive watch with the dial of the Nautilus, the bracelet of the Nautilus and a case that even resembles the design language of the Nautilus.

Originally Posted by EazyE

Or maybe this is all cognitive dissonance because I've sunk so much money into the brand

Regretfully, I am in the same boat as you are.

In addition, I fell for their marketing promises when it comes to watch repairs and restaurations.

I sincerely believe that this release is a huge reputation loss for PP which will sooner or later be reflected in the market prices of their watches.

[Aboutderntime]

Reading some of the TS interviews, Patek allocates 40% of their collection to sport pieces. This won’t change with the introduction of the Cubitus. Rather, production of the and Aquanaut will decrease to accommodate this new family of watches.

[enthusiast]

Originally Posted by EazyE

The options to solve the problem are:
1. Increasing the supply of the nautilus. TS said he doesn't want to be the nautilus company, so this won't do.
2. Reduce demand directly. I'm not sure how to do this.
3. Substitution: redirect some of the the demand to another watch.

4. Increase the price of the Nautilus line.
5. Make the Nautilus an item that is only allocated to buyers that have spent x amount with the brand.
6. Make the Nautilus an item that is only sold by PP itself (which would have allowed to conceal a price increase or a minimum spend to some extent).

I would approach this problem differently. I would try to figure out why is the Nautilus so coveted?

Is it for its design? For its (lack of) availability? For the brand that produces it? For the fact that people regard it as a status symbol or an investment?

My humble take is that it is a combination of all of the above, but the most appealing aspect is most likely not its design.

Watches were a solid investment during a time of low (or non-existing) interest rates. Also, a group of people were happy to spend the money they accumulated with enormous crypto gains on watches.

This market situation changed drastically overnight with the beginning of the war in Ukraine and I am curious how supply and demand for watches will continue to develop.

[EazyE]

Originally Posted by Vasco

It's an interesting and constructive take :)

I would say that this variation on the Nautilus theme might not solve the problem of overshadowing the traditional models.

But I wonder if Patek didn't have to change their mind because the market has quickly evolved towards metallic, sporty watches now and that he had to rethink the traditional/sporty ratio...

They kept the Gondolo very long until very recently, but it disappeared.

Vacheron's Harmony line was a catastrophy (in terms of sales) and I don't think the 1972 sold well either, or the Toledo, or the Quai de l'isle. Maybe the Santos did.

Aside of round watches, the traditional field doesn't seem to thrive. AP had the opposite, the Jules Audemars didn't sell very well in the 2000's/2010's and it was a RO brand. But they tried bringing back round models next to the RO. Hard to achieve (I find the 11.59 interesting, especially the case).

Patek is still appreciated for the round models (technical mastery and also aesthetically) but the sporty/metallic watches are taking more and more room in the catalogue (read "in the sales figures").

I'm not sure that killing the Nautilus will solve the problem (nor I think that it's Patek's intention) and the Cubitus is more of a niche model than a new main line-up.

They saw the introduction of square watches lately and maybe thought this could be something to explore.



This is an interesting history. Another reasonable take is that Patek wanted to experiment with square watches, saw all the bodies from other brand design explorations, and decided not to venture far off the farm. If that’s the case, they deserve the hate



Originally Posted by jgottsman11

If this watch was say 38mm, then great that would be a nice size for this square design. but this thing is just a complete mess of a model.

+100 to this. I'm still struggling to understand the size

Originally Posted by Aboutderntime

Reading some of the TS interviews, Patek allocates 40% of their collection to sport pieces. This won’t change with the introduction of the Cubitus. Rather, production of the and Aquanaut will decrease to accommodate this new family of watches.

I hadn’t read that. Certainly throws a wrench in my theory if they’ll keep sports watch production the same

Originally Posted by enthusiast

4. Increase the price of the Nautilus line.
5. Make the Nautilus an item that is only allocated to buyers that have spent x amount with the brand.
6. Make the Nautilus an item that is only sold by PP itself (which would have allowed to conceal a price increase or a minimum spend to some extent).

I would approach this problem differently. I would try to figure out why is the Nautilus so coveted?

Is it for its design? For its (lack of) availability? For the brand that produces it? For the fact that people regard it as a status symbol or an investment?

My humble take is that it is a combination of all of the above, but the most appealing aspect is most likely not its design.

Watches were a solid investment during a time of low (or non-existing) interest rates. Also, a group of people were happy to spend the money they accumulated with enormous crypto gains on watches.

This market situation changed drastically overnight with the beginning of the war in Ukraine and I am curious how supply and demand for watches will continue to develop.

I guess (4) is how you directly reduce demand. Does the 5811 have less demand than the 5711 did?

Agree the hype makes the design desirable and not the other way around.

[enjoythemusic]

Whatever the case, the amount of PR and exposure this release is receiving is far more than ANY other as best i can recall. VERY well played! Seriously, this is quite an accomplishment. Bravo PP!

Good. Bad. What matters is **they are** being talked about.
.
.
.
.

No one is really talking about Ulysses Nardin.

[kaiserphoenix]

Honestly i feel if anything the Cubitus release has INCREASED the desireability or at least confirmed it in stone now how much superior the Nautilus and aquanaut line is...At least for me, I feel even happier that I was able to acquire the pieces I have...

[subtona]

OP

No one can know for sure what the outcome will be but I like your reasoning.

[Vasco]

Originally Posted by EazyE



Another reasonable take is that Patek wanted to experiment with square watches, saw all the bodies from other brand design explorations, and decided not to venture far off the farm.



A very possible explanation indeed.

[Goupax]

Originally Posted by kaiserphoenix

Honestly i feel if anything the Cubitus release has INCREASED the desireability or at least confirmed it in stone now how much superior the Nautilus and aquanaut line is...At least for me, I feel even happier that I was able to acquire the pieces I have...

Aquanaut is superior how exactly? it's barely above Rolex in terms of case finish with a basic rubber strap system that needs to be cut with a pair of scissors
If anything, the cubitus is positionned to replace the Nautilus models made in SS. I would not be surprised one bit if Patek axes all the steel references in the near future to keep them exclusively in precious metal and increase exclusivity.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Goupax

Aquanaut is superior how exactly? it's barely above Rolex in terms of case finish with a basic rubber strap system that needs to be cut with a pair of scissors
If anything, the cubitus is positionned to replace the Nautilus models made in SS. I would not be surprised one bit if Patek axes all the steel references in the near future to keep them exclusively in precious metal and increase exclusivity.

Yeah, didn’t Stern recently have a comment to that effect? That their focus isn’t steel.

[BlondesNwatches]

The Cubitus will be a very in demand lineup, so many Nautilus collectors will want one of these too.

[pav333hp]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Whatever the case, the amount of PR and exposure this release is receiving is far more than ANY other as best i can recall. VERY well played! Seriously, this is quite an accomplishment. Bravo PP!

Good. Bad. What matters is **they are** being talked about.
.
.
.
.

No one is really talking about Ulysses Nardin.

100%. People are definitely talking a lot about the Cubitus... As you said, good or bad, but they ARE talking.

Originally Posted by BlondesNwatches

The Cubitus will be a very in demand lineup, so many Nautilus collectors will want one of these too.

Definitely agree with this. I own multiple Nautilus's, and would certainly work towards getting the 5822P and 5821/1A Cubitus - they are just super cool, and I really love the dial 5822P dial. I can't wait to see it once our local Patek AD gets them so I can try them on. I have bigger wrists so not super concerned about the size.

[kaiserphoenix]

Originally Posted by Goupax

Aquanaut is superior how exactly? it's barely above Rolex in terms of case finish with a basic rubber strap system that needs to be cut with a pair of scissors
If anything, the cubitus is positionned to replace the Nautilus models made in SS. I would not be surprised one bit if Patek axes all the steel references in the near future to keep them exclusively in precious metal and increase exclusivity.

Well that’s my point…

[Uros]

Will unfortunately end up like money grab. You will need to buy cubitus as another step on your road to Nautilus. Dont think there will be customers ok with having Cubitus only and not wanting nautilus as their final goal and very hard to think that anyone would buy cubitus over nautilus if offered both.

Not to mention very strange to launch nautilus (personally believe uglier) clone for dont want to be nautilus company


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[John Doyle]

We obviously all know why the cubitus looks so much like the nautilus. What we ALL have a problem with is, as mentioned by other members, the poor design thinking especially that it was pitched by TS himself that an amazing new line of sports watches was coming - come on man

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by John Doyle

We obviously all know why the cubitus looks so much like the nautilus. What we ALL have a problem with is, as mentioned by other members, the poor design thinking especially that it was pitched by TS himself that an amazing new line of sports watches was coming - come on man

Please don’t assume you can speak for ALL of us.

[geoach]

Originally Posted by Goupax

Aquanaut is superior how exactly? it's barely above Rolex in terms of case finish with a basic rubber strap system that needs to be cut with a pair of scissors
If anything, the cubitus is positionned to replace the Nautilus models made in SS. I would not be surprised one bit if Patek axes all the steel references in the near future to keep them exclusively in precious metal and increase exclusivity.

do you even know the case is two parts not three like the the sub's 3....the case is very complex to make........the bezel looks like its the 3rd part but it's not it's the middle case....the other is the back

[1William]

This watch sums up PP and there current thinking and product development. You can take the side that this is evolution of the brand and you would not be wrong. That evolution is the real question and this watch misses the mark on so many levels it is indictive of the thinking of the company. Dismissive of people who do not like the designs or execution on product development. What was wrong with having the SS Nautilus? Nothing, but the arrogance of the company required them to get rid of it as they did not want to be defined by SS Sport watch. Even an iconic watch with huge popular demand.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by BlondesNwatches

The Cubitus will be a very in demand lineup, so many Nautilus collectors will want one of these too.

That is a big part of it. Collectors will want the pieces in their collections to stay current and complete. I suspect there will not be enough of them to even touch the collector demand.

[metallic]

Too big... yes. Too derivative...of course. Lazy design...yes again. Will it sell like hotcakes... you betcha.

[JR16]

Originally Posted by EazyE

Cubitus is getting a lot of hate because it feels like cheap design thinking. I'm interested to get feedback on a different perspective:

We know that nautilus demand far outstrips the supply with no end in sight. That imbalance turns away new customers, makes existing customers unhappy, and distracts from other watches. This is a problem.

The options to solve the problem are:
1. Increasing the supply of the nautilus. TS said he doesn't want to be the nautilus company, so this won't do.
2. Reduce demand directly. I'm not sure how to do this.
3. Substitution: redirect some of the the demand to another watch.

Cubitus is a substitute. If even 20% of customers seeking a nautilus are okay with the cubitus, that will:
– Create space for new customers
– Serve collectors who won't be allocated a nautilus

The cubitus also has the same bracelet as the nautilus. That will make the nautilus less special.

All of these have the effect of reducing demand for the nautilus.

Finally, look at the code 11.59. There are few AP customers purely interested in the code; It is seen as the royal oak stepping stone. AP took a huge design risk, and it seems that is not paying off. Patek is taking the safer route to solve the problem by designing a watch they know at least some customers will be happy with.

The Cubitus makes sense when you start with this problem and work backwards. IMO its a solid business decision made for the benefit of customers


...

Or maybe this is all cognitive dissonance because I've sunk so much money into the brand

I appreciate your thoughtfulness but I think your reasoning is flawed… if Thiery doesn’t want to be known as a nautilus company then the real options are:

1. Stop making the nautilus
2. Make a million nautiluses so anyone and everyone who wants one can get on, thereby killing the hype.

Making a nautilus look-alike solves nothing unless the market is flooded with them (cubitus). Otherwise, this new line doubles down on PP being a nautilus company.


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[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by JR16

I appreciate your thoughtfulness but I think your reasoning is flawed… if Thiery doesn’t want to be known as a nautilus company then the real options are:

1. Stop making the nautilus
2. Make a million nautiluses so anyone and everyone who wants one can get on, thereby killing the hype.

Making a nautilus look-alike solves nothing unless the market is flooded with them (cubitus). Otherwise, this new line doubles down on PP being a nautilus company.


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Right.
All he did is make a square nautilus that’s designed solely by himself - rather than the original Gerald Genta design.


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[yessir69]

Bulova Super Seville > Patek Cubitus.

[eanzenberg]

Even the name is cheap and dumb. Another straw on the camel’s back, along with the rap clientele and AD games for the brand.

[azmousss]

interesting and thoughtful take
however, stern said he wants this specific watch/collection allocated to : young, first time patek clients without fuss or issue. but he in the same article acknowledged this won't be the case the first year. he then goes on to say after year 1 anyone who is a young first time client can get this watch within a year.
i simply do not believe it.
IF the intent of this collection is to give if to young first time buyers...no young first time buyer will ever get that stainless steel with the green dial. they wont.

[Champagnepapi]

It’s kinda growing on me


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[RichardBartlett]

The more I see, the more I like them. Only the TT is a miss for me.