Noticing slower gray market sales

[fareplay]

As many of you guys probably know, there is a popular gray market Facebook group that starts with the letter M. I am just a regular Joe that buys there on occasion. Within the last 2 months or so, I am seeing activity (people commenting or bidding or buying) just sink to the ground. I was able to recently buy a new 2024 sprite for little over retail.

I’m sure the super hot watches like Pepsi and Daytona will continue to be expensive, but seeing other watches go down to retail or lower.

[Daytona king]

Originally Posted by fareplay

As many of you guys probably know, there is a popular gray market Facebook group that starts with the letter M. I am just a regular Joe that buys there on occasion. Within the last 2 months or so, I am seeing activity (people commenting or bidding or buying) just sink to the ground. I was able to recently buy a new 2024 sprite for little over retail.

I’m sure the super hot watches like Pepsi and Daytona will continue to be expensive, but seeing other watches go down to retail or lower.

How much was it? On oyster?


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[fareplay]

Originally Posted by Daytona king

How much was it? On oyster?


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2024 new in box with card oyster for 11.5

[Daytona king]

Originally Posted by fareplay

2024 new in box with card oyster for 11.5

Wow. That is amazing. Was it an auction? Great deal!!! I’ve been looking at a sprite.


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[fareplay]

Originally Posted by Daytona king

Wow. That is amazing. Was it an auction? Great deal!!! I’ve been looking at a sprite.


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Yep auction during lunar new year

[Daytona king]

Originally Posted by fareplay

Yep auction during lunar new year

That’s great. How do you like it?


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[travisb]

Hell of a price. Congratulations!
Everything is trending down. Some more than others.

[BraveBold]

The issue is that the demand vs supply is likely nearing an inflection point for many Rolex watches. Rolex has to tread carefully but for watches that had excess demand (where the market price exceeded MSRP) they are dealing with two forms of market inventory - their ADs AND grey dealers. So as demand declines they don’t get as complete a picture as demand is satisfied through those dual channels. They of course want to avoid a situation where they are caught with surprise excess inventory (as grey dealers may cut prices to move their own inventory, including, eventually at or below msrp).

This isn’t a story of Daytonas and BLROs but for the remaining 90% of what Rolex produces. I think it comes as little surprise to most either…

That said, there are glimmers of Chinese demand potential improving. China is strongly motivated to stoke demand at all cost as they need to maintain low-ish unemployment (discussion as to why is unnecessary). But with tariffs and other potential disruption to demand, it is foolish to bet against things getting “worse” from a demand perspective, before they get better.

[Mystro]

Generally the market is slow this time of year in its traditional cyclical pattern. This is nothing new but if I were to make an educated recommendation for those wanting to buy to wear and enjoy:

It’s a good time to buy any watch now but a DJ or Sub is especially good. When summer comes closer dive watches get more popular. Any GMT on Jubilee doesn’t seem to dip much and the SS Daytona is always bulletproof. PM models are soft and might be a good time to make a move if you see one in your collection.
It is especially a great time to buy another brand you have been eyeing.

[brandrea]

Congratulations on the VTNR.

I saw a white Dial Daytona 2024 for sale for under $30k recently. Not bad considering where they were a couple of years ago

[m j b]

Originally Posted by Mystro

It is especially a great time to buy another brand you have been eyeing.

I've noticed some softening of the Omega Speedmaster new releases recently.

[1William]

Market adjustments are always a difficult thing for buyers/collectors/speculators. In my 30 plus years of buying/selling/collecting it takes the average buyer a minute to adjust once they have accepted the reality of availability and pricing. As the market moves so should we but it takes a minute to get use to the new reality. I have tried to get back into buying watches that I want to own and wear more then just accumulating watches because I can. Easier said than done though and when you own a large collection, 30-50 watches, it is more difficult to both wear/buy/sell/trade. One of the most consistent themes in the watch collecting world is money. It is a reality but drives most and impacts decisions in both a positive way and a negative way. In the end it is about enjoying what you own.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by m j b

I've noticed some softening of the Omega Speedmaster new releases recently.

Can you get them from dealers yet?

[enjoythemusic]

That's GREAT news, it means the people who truly desire certain timepieces are getting them.

[Maleg]

Originally Posted by BraveBold

The issue is that the demand vs supply is likely nearing an inflection point for many Rolex watches. Rolex has to tread carefully but for watches that had excess demand (where the market price exceeded MSRP) they are dealing with two forms of market inventory - their ADs AND grey dealers. So as demand declines they don’t get as complete a picture as demand is satisfied through those dual channels. They of course want to avoid a situation where they are caught with surprise excess inventory (as grey dealers may cut prices to move their own inventory, including, eventually at or below msrp).

This isn’t a story of Daytonas and BLROs but for the remaining 90% of what Rolex produces. I think it comes as little surprise to most either…

That said, there are glimmers of Chinese demand potential improving. China is strongly motivated to stoke demand at all cost as they need to maintain low-ish unemployment (discussion as to why is unnecessary). But with tariffs and other potential disruption to demand, it is foolish to bet against things getting “worse” from a demand perspective, before they get better.

I have been buying Rou Gui Oolong tea from a distributer in China for a couple years. It usually takes ten days from order to my mailbox in Illinois. I've been waiting five weeks for the last order. The seller says China is struggling with the tarriff implementation scheme.

If they can't ship tea to the US, other commodities will be suffering too. I wouldn't expect their luxury watch economy to be waking up too soon.

[BraveBold]

Agreed. There is a concerning aspect to some of the recent adjustments, however.

Normally the high end of the market is somewhat robust. Someone collecting $250k watches “should” typically have a net worth well into 8 figures. If not 9 figures. They should also be more insulated from having to adjust purchase plans based on macro declines. Sure they’ll cut back on major real estate purchases or yachts, but not smaller purchases. Yet we see major softening in those categories and a collapse in trading prices in the $100k+ range. Most is premised on China but regardless it looks like a lot of activity must have been from very marginal buyers. Lots of leverage or lots of concentrated speculation - and this is consistent with multiple speculative markets today (particularly crypto). It will be telling what happens when tariffs bite harder as they could have a stagflationary impact - and could utterly decimate this “last hurrah” of cyclical speculative activity.

Originally Posted by 1William

Market adjustments are always a difficult thing for buyers/collectors/speculators. In my 30 plus years of buying/selling/collecting it takes the average buyer a minute to adjust once they have accepted the reality of availability and pricing. As the market moves so should we but it takes a minute to get use to the new reality. I have tried to get back into buying watches that I want to own and wear more then just accumulating watches because I can. Easier said than done though and when you own a large collection, 30-50 watches, it is more difficult to both wear/buy/sell/trade. One of the most consistent themes in the watch collecting world is money. It is a reality but drives most and impacts decisions in both a positive way and a negative way. In the end it is about enjoying what you own.

[espanol]

My biggest wish is that the bottom completely falls out on watches. Burn baby burn! I've got a list of watches I'd like to buy from cryptobros for cents on the dollar...

I'm here for the watches, not the casino

[m j b]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Can you get them from dealers yet?

Me personally, no. But some are getting them, and they are available grey and used for under MSRP.

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[jcdevoe26]

Originally Posted by espanol

My biggest wish is that the bottom completely falls out on watches. Burn baby burn! I've got a list of watches I'd like to buy from cryptobros for cents on the dollar...

I'm here for the watches, not the casino

[Catatafish]

-1.8% in last 3 months according to Watch Charts:

https://watchcharts.com/watches/brand_indexes

[WatchTimes]

Pics???

[dnd2984]

I am seeing same trend in that group. Good for the buyers!

[WatchmeTimepiece]

It all depends on the brand

[Justso]

Originally Posted by espanol

My biggest wish is that the bottom completely falls out on watches. Burn baby burn! I've got a list of watches I'd like to buy from cryptobros for cents on the dollar...

I think you're going to get your wish.

I don't see a single market factor that will boost gray market values or even hold them steady in 2025 and I do pay a fair amount of attention and read a broad swath of market reporting economic data. Many honest grey market dealers are being transparent in reporting that high demand SS sports watches are continuing to tumble down closer to retail. Year over year the market as a whole is pushing down close to 6%. What is there to stop this? I honestly don't see anything.

The global economy is far more fragile than any of us want to admit. It is going to be a very rough go of it for the luxury watch market for the foreseeable future. Most ADs have a chest full of CPO watches they can't move because they're getting high on their own supply trying to sell watches for 25% to 30% over grey market prices.

It is going to be interesting (and I think eye-opening) to see where we are sitting in Q4 of this year headed into Christmas 2025.

[espanol]

Originally Posted by Justso

I think you're going to get your wish.

I don't see a single market factor that will boost gray market values or even hold them steady in 2025 and I do pay a fair amount of attention and read a broad swath of market reporting economic data. Many honest grey market dealers are being transparent in reporting that high demand SS sports watches are continuing to tumble down closer to retail. Year over year the market as a whole is pushing down close to 6%. What is there to stop this? I honestly don't see anything.

The global economy is far more fragile than any of us want to admit. It is going to be a very rough go of it for the luxury watch market for the foreseeable future. Most ADs have a chest full of CPO watches they can't move because they're getting high on their own supply trying to sell watches for 25% to 30% over grey market prices.

It is going to be interesting (and I think eye-opening) to see where we are sitting in Q4 of this year headed into Christmas 2025.

Music to my ears

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Can you get them from dealers yet?

Yes. Seen both white dial and fois available at boutique. Easy

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by espanol

My biggest wish is that the bottom completely falls out on watches. Burn baby burn! I've got a list of watches I'd like to buy from cryptobros for cents on the dollar...

I'm here for the watches, not the casino

Originally Posted by Justso

I think you're going to get your wish.

I don't see a single market factor that will boost gray market values or even hold them steady in 2025 and I do pay a fair amount of attention and read a broad swath of market reporting economic data. Many honest grey market dealers are being transparent in reporting that high demand SS sports watches are continuing to tumble down closer to retail. Year over year the market as a whole is pushing down close to 6%. What is there to stop this? I honestly don't see anything.

The global economy is far more fragile than any of us want to admit. It is going to be a very rough go of it for the luxury watch market for the foreseeable future. Most ADs have a chest full of CPO watches they can't move because they're getting high on their own supply trying to sell watches for 25% to 30% over grey market prices.

It is going to be interesting (and I think eye-opening) to see where we are sitting in Q4 of this year headed into Christmas 2025.

I'm right there with you. With the cheapest DD40 at an absurd $43,000, I'm ready for the market to burn myself. I'd be in at around $30,000, but I feel like that will require desperate sellers trying to raise liquidity.

[Vipes]

Originally Posted by WatchmeTimepiece

It all depends on the brand

Any insights regarding AP?

[BrettG]

Originally Posted by fareplay

As many of you guys probably know, there is a popular gray market Facebook group that starts with the letter M. I am just a regular Joe that buys there on occasion. Within the last 2 months or so, I am seeing activity (people commenting or bidding or buying) just sink to the ground. I was able to recently buy a new 2024 sprite for little over retail.

I’m sure the super hot watches like Pepsi and Daytona will continue to be expensive, but seeing other watches go down to retail or lower.

What’s the name?

[GMTmatt]

Originally Posted by fareplay

2024 new in box with card oyster for 11.5

That’s so cheap I would have been worried they were a scammer