The Next 3 Years of AI: Why Even Experts Are Terrified

[Krash]

I stumbled across this video today on YouTube. Fascinating to say the least. By the way, the person in this video is not a human. She is an AI generated avatar. Nobody would ever know.

Also, at about four minutes in, they inserted a video that I suppose is trying to sell their product. It sort of disrupts things a little bit. But I get they’re marketing a product there and even that is fascinating. After that, it continues onward.

https://youtu.be/86GV5zhNA4g?si=CrgCXWAGmF0N5gjq


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[Boothroyd]

Steve and MODs could add agentic AI to monitor and manage this place.

It's very real. The company I work for is creating an agentic capability for particular business functions. It may be a little rough at first, it will adapt at exponential speed.

How society deals with this will be interesting. As much as the internet changed processes for people, the impact of AI will absolutely dwarf that.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Boothroyd

As much as the internet changed processes for people, the impact of AI will absolutely dwarf that.

I agree. It’s going to be a quantum leap. A couple analogs come to mind.

In the early 1920s, only about 1% had a radio. By the mid 1930, virtually every household had one. People today don’t realize how transformative it was.

Another analog is going from candle light to light bulb. I’d argue that light bulbs and radio were our first exposure to modernity. That’s the degree of change we’re talking about.


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[brandrea]

Agreed.

I guess like many things, in the right hands it can do so much good. In the wrong hands, it’s pretty worrying.

https://financialpost.com/technology...l-intelligence

[Boothroyd]

Yes, and the video is correct. What's different this time is the speed at which change will take place. It will be a fundamentally different world in 2030 from the impact of AI.

I don't think people realize the degree to which they are going to be categorized by buying behavior, financial information,past internet history, etc. People have left an awful lot of breadcrumbs online that can now be assembled and categorized in an instant.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Boothroyd

Yes, and the video is correct. What's different this time is the speed at which change will take place. It will be a fundamentally different world in 2030 from the impact of AI.

I don't think people realize the degree to which they are going to be categorized by buying behavior, financial information,past internet history, etc. People have left an awful lot of breadcrumbs online that can now be assembled and categorized in an instant.

I don’t think people realize it either. I think the big milestone is AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). Once we get to that point, then ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) is right behind.

I’m trying to think of a good analogy. Usually I’m pretty quick to come up with one, but I guess I’ll use football as an example.

It was difficult for the Eagles to get to the NFC Championship game. Lots of adversity to overcome. But once they got there, they cruised to a 55-23 victory over the Commanders. And then winning the Super Bowl against the Chiefs was a piece of cake.

I think that’s what getting to AGI and then ultimately ASI will be like. Getting to AGI is the big challenge, and ASI will literally be upon us overnight.


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[brandrea]

Someone need to work on AI to guarantee whatever Rolex reference TRF pledge members want.

[RichardBartlett]

I've spent a lot of useless time thinking about how AI is going to totally destroy our modern way of life.

Western and probably most civilisations are based on the 40 HR working week. You go to work you make money you come home and spend that money.
Once AI and robotics truly get going most jobs will simply disappear. Lawyers, bankers, accountants ,office workers, shop workers, manufacturing, assembly lines, the list is almost endless. Plus as these jobs go the knock-on effects will mean we need less bus drivers, as no one is going to work any more, builders , cleaners, maintenance men, as offices and most shops are not needed. Less cars less planes because people won't need to travel as much. Slowly but surely society as we know grinds to a halt.

Only a few workers say roughly 5-10% will be actually working to support the rest of the population.
How can you pay those workers enough to support themselves plus enough to encourage them to work and also to fund the 90-95% non workers and the whole of society? You pay them a million bucks but tax them at 99%? Who's going to do that??

If western governments are so clever (tbc) why are they so hellbent on bringing in millions of non skilled non socially integrated and in many cases non socially intergratable people into a not too distant future that requires less and less people to function?



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[Krash]

Originally Posted by RichardBartlett

I've spent a lot of useless time thinking about how AI is going to totally destroy our modern way of life.

Western and probably most civilisations are based on the 40 HR working week. You go to work you make money you come home and spend that money.
Once AI and robotics truly get going most jobs will simply disappear. Lawyers, bankers, accountants ,office workers, shop workers, manufacturing, assembly lines, the list is almost endless. Plus as these jobs go the knock-on effects will mean we need less bus drivers, as no one is going to work any more, builders , cleaners, maintenance men, as offices and most shops are not needed, cleaners . Less cars less planes because people won't need to travel as much. Slowly but surely society as we know grinds to a halt.

Only a few workers say roughly 5-10% will be actually working to support the rest of the population.
How can you pay those workers enough to support themselves plus enough to encourage them to work and also to fund the 90-95% non workers and the whole of society? You pay them a million bucks but tax them at 99%? Who's going to do that??

If western governments are so clever (tbc) why are they so hellbent on bringing in millions of non skilled non socially integrated and in many cases non socially intergratable people into a not too distant future that requires less and less people to function?



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I think people that poor concrete, put roofs on, and build pools have nothing to worry about. Eventually, they’ll be cyborgs than can do that stuff. But the cyborgs will probably cost the equivalent of a luxury yacht. Human labor will be much cheaper (at least in the short term).

Engineers, clerks, etc. are where the big risk is. Anyone working in Hollywood and the entertainment industry are among the walking dead. AI will generate all our movies and entertainment for us.


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[RichardBartlett]

I saw a while back that some clever chap said he thought AI would do the hard work so he could spend more time painting, making music and writing. A dream life or something he thought..

But he was shocked to realise these artistic based things were the very first to feel the effects of AI !

So all he's got left is hard work and that will go soon too!!

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[enjoythemusic]

i'm loving AI.

We can't stop inevitability.

[RichardBartlett]

Originally Posted by Krash

I think people that poor concrete, put roofs on, and build pools have nothing to worry about. Eventually, they’ll be cyborgs than can do that stuff. But the cyborgs will probably cost the equivalent of a luxury yacht. Human labor will be much cheaper (at least in the short term).

Engineers, clerks, etc. are where the big risk is. Anyone working in Hollywood and the entertainment industry are among the walking dead. AI will generate all our movies and entertainment for us.


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I think Musk said the 'working life cost' of an assembly robot is about 8 dollars an hour. He expects that to fall in years to come.

Certain trade based jobs, plumbers, HVAC, electricians etc are safe for now but as design adapts to incorporate AI and robotics to their advantage will mean these jobs will decrease.
Plus if 90-95% non workers are on social benefits they won't be having that new pool...

Robots will design robots,build robots, teach robots, fix robots for robots to work on new robot things.

Logical conclusion is; why do robots need people? And therein lies the rub

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[77T]

There are human reactions to any "unknown" new thing.

Some are rational, reasoned reactions.
Some not so reasoned.

What are your thoughts on past rumination and worry?
Are we paralleling any of these patterns of thought?

In Ancient Egypt on the written word:
Some priests feared that writing would erode memory and oral traditions, arguing it could lead to a decline in wisdom.

In Greece and Rome on wheeled transport:
Concerns arose about over-reliance on machines and the potential loss of physical labor.

The Printing Press:
The spread of printed material sparked fears about the dissemination of heretical ideas and the decline of scholarly authority.

Gunpowder:
It caused apprehensions about escalating violence and loss of life.

The Mechanical Clock:
Some viewed this as a challenge to the divine natural order of things, tying it to interruption of natural rhythms.

Steam Engine:
The Industrial Revolution raised fears about job displacement and the degradation of rural communities.

The Telegraph:
Concerns regarding the potential for the rapid spread of misinformation and robber baron's access to news.

Electricity:
The introduction of electric power faced skepticism due to safety concerns and fear of the machines.

Photography:
Some artists and philosophers worried that photography would devalue traditional art forms.

Television:
Fears about its impact on social interaction, attention spans, and the quality of information became prevalent.

Nuclear Technology:
The atomic bomb's development led to fears of global annihilation and later, the ethical safety implications of nuclear power.

The PC:
Concerns about privacy, job loss, and the impact of screen time on mental health began to surface.

The Internet:
Fears regarding privacy, cyberbullying, and the spread of misinformation became significant societal concerns.

Social Media:
Issues of addiction, mental health effects, and the spread of false information raised alarms.

Generative AI:
Growing concerns include job displacement, ethical dilemmas in decision-making, and the potential for misuse in surveillance, AI-control over humans, and warfare.


Is there any good news?
Righteous Worry?
Overreaction?


On March 4, 1933, FDR famously stated, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

He argued that the nation needed to confront challenges with courage and determination, rather than succumbing to fear.

The current hand-wringing reminds me of nihilistic fear from almost a century ago, which could paralyze efforts to improve our AI future situation.

Roosevelt’s speech aimed to instill hope and confidence in people as they faced unprecedented change - where are our contemporary voices of reason???

Just my


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[Krash]

Originally Posted by RichardBartlett

I saw a while back that some clever chap said he thought AI would do the hard work so he could spend more time painting, making music and writing. A dream life or something he thought..

But he was shocked to realise these artistic based things were the very first to feel the effects of AI !

So all he's got left is hard work and that will go soon too!!

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Yeah, exactly.

I think the entertainment industry will be hardest hit in the beginning.

A couple factors: First, it’s going to be fairly easy for AI to generate content. Second, it’s not exactly mission critical. So, even if AI generates a lot of garbage content in the beginning, it’s not as if it’s a big deal. There’s no risk. But eventually the quality of the content will greatly improve.


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[Krash]

Originally Posted by 77T

There are human reactions to any "unknown" new thing.

Some are rational, reasoned reactions.
Some not so reasoned.

What are your thoughts on past rumination and worry?
Are we paralleling any of these patterns of thought?

In Ancient Egypt on the written word:
Some priests feared that writing would erode memory and oral traditions, arguing it could lead to a decline in wisdom.

In Greece and Rome on wheeled transport:
Concerns arose about over-reliance on machines and the potential loss of physical labor.

The Printing Press:
The spread of printed material sparked fears about the dissemination of heretical ideas and the decline of scholarly authority.

Gunpowder:
It caused apprehensions about escalating violence and loss of life.

The Mechanical Clock:
Some viewed this as a challenge to the divine natural order of things, tying it to interruption of natural rhythms.

Steam Engine:
The Industrial Revolution raised fears about job displacement and the degradation of rural communities.

The Telegraph:
Concerns regarding the potential for the rapid spread of misinformation and robber baron's access to news.

Electricity:
The introduction of electric power faced skepticism due to safety concerns and fear of the machines.

Photography:
Some artists and philosophers worried that photography would devalue traditional art forms.

Television:
Fears about its impact on social interaction, attention spans, and the quality of information became prevalent.

Nuclear Technology:
The atomic bomb's development led to fears of global annihilation and later, the ethical safety implications of nuclear power.

The PC:
Concerns about privacy, job loss, and the impact of screen time on mental health began to surface.

The Internet:
Fears regarding privacy, cyberbullying, and the spread of misinformation became significant societal concerns.

Social Media:
Issues of addiction, mental health effects, and the spread of false information raised alarms.

Generative AI:
Growing concerns include job displacement, ethical dilemmas in decision-making, and the potential for misuse in surveillance, AI-control over humans, and warfare.


Is there any good news?
Righteous Worry?
Overreaction?


On March 4, 1933, FDR famously stated, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

He argued that the nation needed to confront challenges with courage and determination, rather than succumbing to fear.

The current hand-wringing reminds me of nihilistic fear from almost a century ago, which could paralyze efforts to improve our AI future situation.

Roosevelt’s speech aimed to instill hope and confidence in people as they faced unprecedented change - where are our contemporary voices of reason???

Just my


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Humans will adapt. Jobs will be lost. Jobs will be created.


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[77T]

Agree
Hand wringing too


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[BraveBold]

While historical analogies about fears of technology are easy to recite, they overlook the unique and potentially catastrophic risks of AGI. Past technologies, like the printing press or the telegraph, transformed society, but AGI has the capacity to -evolve- ultimately beyond human control, potentially leading to outcomes we can’t predict or manage. Projections about AGI’s development are likely unreliable but even under optimistic scenarios, the risks are orders of magnitude higher than anything we’ve faced before. Existential risk. Given this, it’s not just overreaction, but careful consideration of the unprecedented danger AGI could pose. Game theory also plays a role here—once one group starts developing AGI, others may feel pressured to do the same, leading us down a dangerous path despite knowing the risks.

It is not a dice roll society should be making (game theory challenge acknowledged). As a parent with young children and as someone who cares about future generations, it is appalling. Those developing it are not sufficiently equipped intellectually, or morally, to engender my support/confidence..

Originally Posted by 77T

There are human reactions to any "unknown" new thing.

Some are rational, reasoned reactions.
Some not so reasoned.

What are your thoughts on past rumination and worry?
Are we paralleling any of these patterns of thought?

In Ancient Egypt on the written word:
Some priests feared that writing would erode memory and oral traditions, arguing it could lead to a decline in wisdom.

In Greece and Rome on wheeled transport:
Concerns arose about over-reliance on machines and the potential loss of physical labor.

The Printing Press:
The spread of printed material sparked fears about the dissemination of heretical ideas and the decline of scholarly authority.

Gunpowder:
It caused apprehensions about escalating violence and loss of life.

The Mechanical Clock:
Some viewed this as a challenge to the divine natural order of things, tying it to interruption of natural rhythms.

Steam Engine:
The Industrial Revolution raised fears about job displacement and the degradation of rural communities.

The Telegraph:
Concerns regarding the potential for the rapid spread of misinformation and robber baron's access to news.

Electricity:
The introduction of electric power faced skepticism due to safety concerns and fear of the machines.

Photography:
Some artists and philosophers worried that photography would devalue traditional art forms.

Television:
Fears about its impact on social interaction, attention spans, and the quality of information became prevalent.

Nuclear Technology:
The atomic bomb's development led to fears of global annihilation and later, the ethical safety implications of nuclear power.

The PC:
Concerns about privacy, job loss, and the impact of screen time on mental health began to surface.

The Internet:
Fears regarding privacy, cyberbullying, and the spread of misinformation became significant societal concerns.

Social Media:
Issues of addiction, mental health effects, and the spread of false information raised alarms.

Generative AI:
Growing concerns include job displacement, ethical dilemmas in decision-making, and the potential for misuse in surveillance, AI-control over humans, and warfare.


Is there any good news?
Righteous Worry?
Overreaction?


On March 4, 1933, FDR famously stated, "The only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

He argued that the nation needed to confront challenges with courage and determination, rather than succumbing to fear.

The current hand-wringing reminds me of nihilistic fear from almost a century ago, which could paralyze efforts to improve our AI future situation.

Roosevelt’s speech aimed to instill hope and confidence in people as they faced unprecedented change - where are our contemporary voices of reason???

Just my


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[BraveBold]

Originally Posted by Krash

Humans will adapt. Jobs will be lost. Jobs will be created.


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The problem is the short-sightedness of it all. It is not about jobs.

What provides me some comfort is the (relative) ineptitude of people - more in their ability to project and extrapolate trends of this nature (AI development). The development of AGI is (my view) not happening this century. It may never happen.

Current “AI” models are statistically-driven mimics and aggregators. Many use cases and absolutely will drive massive change in certain industries. Not to the extent often cited (lawyers, doctors, etc will still exist). But the brute force implementation we know today has very little in common with AGI… and more computing power may never bridge that gap.

[Krash]

The other thing that is fascinating to me is the construct or the form at which AI is evolving to.

It won’t be this huge, monolithic, single entity that we see in Hollywood movies. For example , it won’t be like the HAL-9000 we saw in 2001: A Space Odyssey or Skynet in Terminator.

Instead, there will be millions (maybe billions) of individual AI agents that are all capable of talking to each other. Sort of like a hive or web of individual entities that form one giant collective. Each will be independent from one another while at the time linked to each other.


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[RichardBartlett]

Originally Posted by Krash

Humans will adapt. Jobs will be lost. Jobs will be created.


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With a ratio of around 1,000000:1 imho.

Massive depopulation is the only way humans can adapt to the changes.


12 July 2023
An Indian CEO is being criticised after he said that his firm had replaced 90% of its support staff with an artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot.

Suumit Shah, founder of Dukaan, said on Twitter that the chatbot had drastically improved first response and resolution time of customers' queries.

The tweet sparked outrage online.

It comes at a time when there has been a lot of conversation and apprehension about AI taking away people's jobs, specially in the services industry.

In a series of tweets, which have over one million views, Mr Shah wrote about his firm's decision to use a chatbot. He said that though laying off staff had been a "tough" decision, it was "necessary".

"Given the state of economy, start-ups are prioritising 'profitability' over striving to become 'unicorns', and so are we," he wrote. Mr Shah added that customer support had been a struggle for the firm for a long time and that he was looking to fix this.

He also wrote about how they built the bot and the AI platform in a short span of time so that all of Dukaan's customers could have their own AI assistant. He said that the bot was answering all kinds of queries with speed and accuracy.

"In the age of instant gratification, launching a business is not a distant dream anymore," he wrote. "With the right idea, the right team, anyone can turn their entrepreneurial dreams into reality."

Mr Shah also added that the firm was hiring for multiple roles.

However, many users criticised his tweets and accused him of disrupting the lives of his staff with this "heartless" decision.

"As expected, didn't find any mention about the 90% staff that were laid off. What assistance were they provided?" asked one user.

"Maybe it was the right decision for the business, but it shouldn't have turned into a celebratory/marketing thread about it," said another.

Mr Shah responded to one tweet saying "as expected, someone will get offended on behalf of someone else" and added that he would post about assistance for his staff on LinkedIn, because on Twitter, people are in search of "profitability and not sympathy".

In recent years, generative AI tools like ChatGPT have proliferated and become more accessible. There have been reports of organisations using these tools to increase productivity while cutting costs. This has made workers fearful about losing their jobs to technology.

In March, Goldman Sachs published a report showing that AI could replace the equivalent of *300 million full-time jobs*.

In India, several firms are investing into AI to develop products and it has sparked concerns about job losses.


That was 2 years ago. Progress in this field is based on dog years

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[AzPaul]

Any timeframe yet for the lifelike sexbots?
Asking for a friend.

[RichardBartlett]

You're basing it on what we know now and our now age defined thinking

IE we don't think things will change much because we don't know what the future may bring ( unknown unknown) and we kinda like the past more (known known) so base ourselves in the past.

Nor do we fully appreciate how children think and behave.
Their lives are fully committed to technology. You see very few children without a mobile phone these days and they'd rather lose a limb than their iPhone 16.
They will embrace change and change at an increasing rate as a good thing.

Secondly a highly intelligent engineer friend had an upcoming court case which he thought would be an interesting challenge to represent himself. So he went and studied law to see how best to fight his case
He realised virtually every case is won or lost on precedent. Find a case in the past which mirrors yours and you'll win.

He won btw because he was properly prepared.

AI can do this in minutes if not seconds..
You can talk to doctors online are you sure you're talking to a person or a computer?

even get surgery can be done by a surgeon controlling a robot in another country.
Film every surgeon operating and teach the robot every thing every surgeon knows How long before an ai robot can replace the surgeon?

Testla trains a robot to do a certain task and within seconds every Tesla robot in the world can do the same task if called upon. Change timelines are reduced from weeks,months years decades to less than a few seconds...

We are at the dawn of a brave new world.. wether we like it or not. IMHO

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[Boothroyd]

Good commentary here. Another concern is, what is AI trained on? In the video, they were using Google listings as a source. Is that information accurate?

AI is likely to have prejudices in its underlying data and models if not "trained" carefully. It could exponentially accelerate some very poor processes.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Boothroyd

Good commentary here. Another concern is, what is AI trained on? In the video, they were using Google listings as a source. Is that information accurate?

AI is likely to have prejudices in its underlying data and models if not "trained" carefully. It could exponentially accelerate some very poor processes.

Yes, that’s a legitimate concern. If you do a Google search on something, many times you get conflicting results. So, what’s right, what’s wrong, and how will it know?

But AI is going to excel at tasks where there are established standards and rules that govern the process. Banking industry, insurance, etc. It will also excel at engineering and math based tasks, and content creation, too.


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[offrdmania]

So I guess this means we should see Tupac back real soon

[BLACKHORSE 6]

I think that while it’s true that (for the most part) returns on assets have always been better than return on labor, it will become especially true if AI takes out all the working professionals. People who own property and other assets will do very well. Everyone else is up a creek.

[Rock]

Re the Indian CEO and his AI 'Help Centre/Call Centre'.
I haven't encountered too many 'Call Centres' staffed by humans that are worth a cracker and NO automated ones that were anything other than a joke. Most of the automated ones couldn't even understand the question.
I suspect the CEO regards every 'contact' as a 'successful' interaction - most are an abject failure.
I worry most about the ability of malicious players to deceive and communicate false information at a level greater than anything we have seen to date. Will we be able to believe anything we hear or see?

[Paul C]

Originally Posted by Krash

The other thing that is fascinating to me is the construct or the form at which AI is evolving to.

It won’t be this huge, monolithic, single entity that we see in Hollywood movies. For example , it won’t be like the HAL-9000 we saw in 2001: A Space Odyssey or Skynet in Terminator.

Instead, there will be millions (maybe billions) of individual AI agents that are all capable of talking to each other. Sort of like a hive or web of individual entities that form one giant collective. Each will be independent from one another while at the time linked to each other.


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I just saw a vid today on X where two AI agents talk to each other in their own language. See link, https://x.com/ggerganov/status/1894057587441566081

One profession I see having no impact from AI is the fashion industry. Ppl still want to see (true) models at a fashion show. However this week in MFW (Milan Fashion Week) Ameca was there (the World's most advanced robot). See link, https://www.instagram.com/reel/DGoB-GrvpYe/

It's quite scary how fast AI is evolving. Sci-fi movies like I, Robot, Terminator, Alita: Battle Angel, Ex Machina, Ghost in the Shell etc. could happen in our lifetime.

[Andad]

The serious issues with AI in the wrong hands have not even begun to surface in the financial sector.

[RichardBartlett]

Originally Posted by Paul C

I just saw a vid today on X where two AI agents talk to each other in their own language. See link, https://x.com/ggerganov/status/1894057587441566081

That's something I hadn't thought of. AI will have a 'conversation' in milliseconds that people take hours over

Hmmm.

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