Rolex supply again!! But a Valid question people!

[Podmornica]

I don't think we will soon see the prices drop at the gray market for hot professional models that everybody wants. Those folks already paid high dollar buying off from the flippers, and they cannot afford to sell us the BLRO for $11K as they paid them $14 or so with intention to sell it for $16K ..

What I DO expect is that we will be able to buy the BLRO from the local AD within couple of months/weeks waiting time, since most of those buyers on their waiting list will get the cold feet in these circumstances and flippers are no longer interested since grays are not buying off for the money they used to.

The Rolex market will normalize this way. My 0.5c

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

I don't think we will soon see the prices drop at the gray market for hot professional models that everybody wants. Those folks already paid high dollar buying off from the flippers, and they cannot afford to sell us the BLRO for $11K as they paid them $14 or so with intention to sell it for $16K ..

What I DO expect is that we will be able to buy the BLRO from the local AD within couple of months/weeks waiting time, since most of those buyers on their waiting list will get the cold feet in these circumstances and flippers are no longer interested since grays are not buying off for the money they used to.

The Rolex market will normalize this way. My 0.5c

The ONLY reason the grey market can charge a premium is because of the wait. There is no markup if the wait time is always less than a few weeks at an AD. Literally, zero market....they wouldn’t even have a market at MSRP if that were the case. Grey has to offer something AD doesn’t, whether it’s cheaper price or no wait one.. Greys will lose a fortune with many probably going under if this continues to play out.

Just make it simple, who would ever pay $14k for a watch they can get from an authorized dealer for $10k? I’ll tell you, nobody.

Greys invested heavily and future is looking bleak for them, just a fact.

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by dmash

The ONLY reason the grey market can charge a premium is because of the wait. There is no markup if the wait time is always less than a few weeks at an AD. Literally, zero market....they wouldn’t even have a market at MSRP if that were the case. Grey has to offer something AD doesn’t, whether it’s cheaper price or no wait one.. Greys will lose a fortune with many probably going under if this continues to play out.

Just make it simple, who would ever pay $14k for a watch they can get from an authorized dealer for $10k? I’ll tell you, nobody.

Greys invested heavily and future is looking bleak for them, just a fact.

Of course, nobody will pay those inflated prices. That's why I commented it will be easier to get the model you want directly from the AD once the whole Rolex market lose the majority of buyers due to crisis we are facing.

It's just that I somehow believe those grays are still persisting like cockroaches and we still cannot see those good deals from them. It's like they have some sort of "gray dealer union" or something, lol ..

But, yeah, all those greys from instagram showing off tens of BLRO and BLNR are facing doom

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Of course, nobody will pay those inflated prices. That's why I commented it will be easier to get the model you want directly from the AD once the whole Rolex market lose the majority of buyers due to crisis we are facing.

It's just that I somehow believe those grays are still persisting like cockroaches and we still cannot see those good deals from them. It's like they have some sort of "gray dealer union" or something, lol ..

But, yeah, all those greys from instagram showing off tens of BLRO and BLNR are facing doom

Yeah but I’m simply commenting that once the AD has stock, the greys will be forced to drop prices (steeply) or have forever sitting stock. It’s either sell at a loss or never sell.

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Of course, nobody will pay those inflated prices. That's why I commented it will be easier to get the model you want directly from the AD once the whole Rolex market lose the majority of buyers due to crisis we are facing.

It's just that I somehow believe those grays are still persisting like cockroaches and we still cannot see those good deals from them. It's like they have some sort of "gray dealer union" or something, lol ..

But, yeah, all those greys from instagram showing off tens of BLRO and BLNR are facing doom

I agree with you. There is not a union, but it's in their best interest to work together and this is already happening to control price. A couple greys lowering prices set a precedent which has a trickle effect to the others. At some point, a small-time grey or someone without much working capital has to lower to survive, then it's house of cards from there. The larger players are talking to set prices for the interest of all involved (not customers obviously).

[bay-dweller]

Originally Posted by dmash

The ONLY reason the grey market can charge a premium is because of the wait. There is no markup if the wait time is always less than a few weeks at an AD. Literally, zero market....they wouldn’t even have a market at MSRP if that were the case. Grey has to offer something AD doesn’t, whether it’s cheaper price or no wait one.. Greys will lose a fortune with many probably going under if this continues to play out.

Just make it simple, who would ever pay $14k for a watch they can get from an authorized dealer for $10k? I’ll tell you, nobody.

Greys invested heavily and future is looking bleak for them, just a fact.

I know this is a Rolex forum, but let's remember that there is a substantial portion of the grey market that deals in new watches below MSRP already.

Like you said, they only get business if they have better inventory or LOWER PRICES. We might lose a few grey dealers in this recession; but the ones with diversified inventory, low overhead, or access to capital will survive.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by bay-dweller

I know this is a Rolex forum, but let's remember that there is a substantial portion of the grey market that deals in new watches below MSRP already.

Like you said, they only get business if they have better inventory or LOWER PRICES. We might lose a few grey dealers in this recession; but the ones with diversified inventory, low overhead, or access to capital will survive.

I tend to agree with you when thinking of years past, but SS market has been so crazy, I’ve seen most 3rd party watch dealers sell strictly Rolex/Ap/Patek because the margins are so insane compared to other brands. I mean, why would you blame them, and there was no end in sight.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by dmash

I tend to agree with you when thinking of years past, but SS market has been so crazy, I’ve seen most 3rd party watch dealers sell strictly Rolex/Ap/Patek because the margins are so insane compared to other brands. I mean, why would you blame them, and there was no end in sight.

One of the best parts about Greys is they also bring us discounted watches. In fact that was the case most of the time just three years ago. Not on the hot watches like Daytonas, 5711’s and new releases but on most everything else. Heck even AP sold at a discount back then.

We never saw this level of hate for the greys back then. It’s sad to see now.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Patton250

One of the best parts about Greys is they also bring us discounted watches. In fact that was the case most of the time just three years ago. Not on the hot watches like Daytonas, 5711’s and new releases but on most everything else. Heck even AP sold at a discount back then.

We never saw this level of hate for the greys back then. It’s sad to see now.

I never hated the long term, established grey dealers and in fact have happily purchased from the in the past. Think along the lines of Bob's Watches or Bernard down in in Texas.

What I do have a level of hate for is the guy showing off how he has 10 BLROs and 7 white dial Daytonas and looks and acts like the worst kind of stereotypical used car dealer. I don't mind so much if he gets his a$$ handed to him.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Rado63

Very interesting to read everyone's thoughts on the Rolex market and the plight of resellers. Seems everyone ignored what the brand itself may do. Once the economy returns to work, My guess is that Rolex will only supply top AD's in every market. This has the potential to push the number of AD's down as they will perform poorly and will potentially be dropped. Full cases are not the luxury brand style, that leads to discounting so it's doubtful that Rolex accelerates production. If there are bargains to be had, whether from the AD or the reseller, the time is probably right now. My guess is soon, the only inventory out there is at your reseller where there prices will begin to look good. My.02.

Exactly. 100% agree. Well put

Originally Posted by Oystersteel92

I never hated the long term, established grey dealers and in fact have happily purchased from the in the past. Think along the lines of Bob's Watches or Bernard down in in Texas.

What I do have a level of hate for is the guy showing off how he has 10 BLROs and 7 white dial Daytonas and looks and acts like the worst kind of stereotypical used car dealer. I don't mind so much if he gets his a$$ handed to him.

While I don’t hate that guy I have to admit that was pretty stupid of him to post those online for everyone to see.

[fskywalker]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

I don't think we will soon see the prices drop at the gray market for hot professional models that everybody wants. Those folks already paid high dollar buying off from the flippers, and they cannot afford to sell us the BLRO for $11K as they paid them $14 or so with intention to sell it for $16K ..

What I DO expect is that we will be able to buy the BLRO from the local AD within couple of months/weeks waiting time, since most of those buyers on their waiting list will get the cold feet in these circumstances and flippers are no longer interested since grays are not buying off for the money they used to.

The Rolex market will normalize this way. My 0.5c

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