Strange happenings in Hong Kong - grey market dealers

[aa909]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

I agree. But at the same time, I don’t see all moda sellers as reliable as the big trusted greys. I believe they have less cash to to play with as they work alone. I also see a lot of posts of scams there lately. And their reference check aren’t always 100% legit. I’m just saying that moda also isn’t 100% accurate.


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I Agree with your concerns . But keep in mind many of the greys here that we all trust buy a lot of their inventory off MODA and sell them here to us for premiums. That's why I like to track MODA to make sure I'm getting a reasonable deal if I go with the greys here.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

I believe in the last couple of days you are seeing the highly leveraged individual dealers on moda panicking and trying to get rid of their small inventories as quickly as possible. Big trusted greys are still not at those prices at all. At least not yet. There is a big gap between the prices on moda to the prices on big greys websites and chrono 24 and other trading groups.


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Lol Takuya (AKA the definition of big grey) sold a mint 43ROO for $36k, complete set, 13 days ago when the market was arguably even better off. AND it took him 9 days to sale it, wasn't some steal of the year which somebody jumped on immediately. Another big name dealer has a 43ROO with a nick on the side for $35k here on TRF and can't sell it.

The market has trended downwards for months. There wasn't some spectacular occurrence where people are now trying to rid themselves of inventory. So it makes no sense you claim this is some panic, as opposed to the fact the market has fallen and continues to do so. The other greys keeping prices inflated are just holding on to some minute hope that prices rise again. Nobody whatsoever is paying those prices unless they're off their rocker or pulling down 8 figure salaries and enjoy lighting their cash on fire.

To me, the definition of the watch one can use to track market sentiment, is a ceramic Daytona. Black dial, barely used, full sets, are going unsold for $25k right now.

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by aa909

I Agree with your concerns . But keep in mind many of the greys here that we all trust buy a lot of their inventory off MODA and sell them here to us for premiums. That's why I like to track MODA to make sure I'm getting a reasonable deal if I go with the greys here.

That’s understandable. Tbh I have yet to purchase a watch from the grey market. I either buy directly from the company or an AD. I got allocated a special 50th piece today at last. Will make a post soon

Ultimately, I think the way things will work is all the things which went up first will fall last. And the things which went up last will fall first. Reversed engineering.

PP> AP> Rolex >Vacheron> all other high end brands. Will be interesting to see what happens to Independents such as FPJ and MB&F this time around.


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[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by dmash

Lol Takuya (AKA the definition of big grey) sold a mint 43ROO for $36k, complete set, 13 days ago when the market was arguably even better off. AND it took him 9 days to sale it, wasn't some steal of the year which somebody jumped on immediately. Another big name dealer has a 43ROO with a nick on the side for $35k here on TRF and can't sell it.

The market has trended downwards for months. There wasn't some spectacular occurrence where people are now trying to rid themselves of inventory. So it makes no sense you claim this is some panic, as opposed to the fact the market has fallen and continues to do so. The other greys keeping prices inflated are just holding on to some minute hope that prices rise again. Nobody whatsoever is paying those prices unless they're off their rocker or pulling down 8 figure salaries and enjoy lighting their cash on fire.

Yeah they been trending down for months. Peak ended about February and it started the decline. Maybe it’s just me but I been to Rolex this week and was offered SS for the first time in 4-5 years. So I went on moda and the grey sites etc and I saw the huge drops in the last couple of days. I do think some are panicking, I personally have a couple people at work that bought into the hype and last couple of days are stressed about it.

Btw, you can’t determine the whole market is under retail from 1 ROO that sold at a discount. But we might be heading there really soon. Personally I never liked the ROO and it’s a big watch and not easy for everyone to pull off. So I’m not surprised that it’s harder to sell than a RO, which people are probably still wanting to get.


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

Yeah they been trending down for months. Peak ended about February and it started the decline. Maybe it’s just me but I been to Rolex this week and was offered SS for the first time in 4-5 years. So I went on moda and the grey sites etc and I saw the huge drops in the last couple of days. I do think some are panicking, I personally have a couple people at work that bought into the hype and last couple of days are stressed about it.

Btw, you can’t determine the whole market is under retail from 1 ROO that sold at a discount. But we might be heading there really soon.


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I hope they do panic and they all leave. Zero sympathy or remorse for people who treated watches as 'investments' or a store of wealth. This was supposed to be fun and has ceased to do so as of late.

and to your second point, so what is your opinion? You'd rather use artificially inflated grey market ASKS (which never result in a sale) as opposed to visible sale price of said item? I'd say my method is a much, much more accurate way of gauging the appropriate value. Those phony grey prices are what got new guys in trouble anyways, they based watch worth on asks instead of real sales.







Additionally, I only used a 43ROO as a example as you directly responded to another poster (who mentioned a $8k discount on a 43ROO) and you claimed no big grey is offering that. I'm providing you with direct info showing you such.

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

I believe in the last couple of days you are seeing the highly leveraged individual dealers on moda panicking and trying to get rid of their small inventories as quickly as possible. Big trusted greys are still not at those prices at all. At least not yet. There is a big gap between the prices on moda to the prices on big greys websites and chrono 24 and other trading groups.


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[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by dmash

I hope they do panic and they all leave. Zero sympathy or remorse for people who treated watches as 'investments' or a store of wealth. This was supposed to be fun and has ceased to do so as of late.

and to your second point, so what is your opinion? You'd rather use artificially inflated grey market ASKS (which never result in a sale) as opposed to visible sale price of said item? I'd say my method is a much, much more accurate way of gauging the appropriate value. Those phony grey prices are what got new guys in trouble anyways, they based watch worth on asks instead of real sales.

My method is once I start to see more inventory in stores, that’s when you know prices will also drop on the secondary market, as a whole. And this week I saw that with my own eyes. A Polar, milgauss, air-king and a few DJs available in the store I was at. I asked about lists and they opened them currently only for two-tone pieces (including subs and Daytona’s). As I recall all these models were the last ones to be snatched before things became impossible. This store has been with empty display cases or just for exhibition pieces for years. So to answer your question, that’s my own real indication. I never really trusted grey market prices at any point of time anyways.
I share the same feelings as you about prices and watches meant to be worn by real enthusiasts, rather than “investors”. Hopefully we will all get the pieces we wanted for years and couldn’t.

And I think there was a misunderstanding, I wasn’t talking about the ROO mentioned above. I was talking about Daytonas and RO’s which I see the prices on moda vs the big greys. That’s all.


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[psm11]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

I agree. But at the same time, I don’t see all moda sellers as reliable as the big trusted greys. I believe they have less cash to to play with as they work alone. I also see a lot of posts of scams there lately. And their reference check aren’t always 100% legit. I’m just saying that moda also isn’t 100% accurate.


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Really? I check MODA multiple times a day and haven't seen any "scam" posts. MODA is just as reliable if not more reliable than the big greys. If you do a reference check you should be fine. I don't think the the premium the big greys are charging is providing any extra security.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by psm11

Really? I check MODA multiple times a day and haven't seen any "scam" posts. MODA is just as reliable if not more reliable than the big greys. If you do a reference check you should be fine. I don't think the the premium the big greys are charging is providing any extra security.

Compared to some of the ridiculous asking prices on C24 and elsewhere, you could have every third deal on Moda go sideways, and still come out ahead.

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by psm11

Really? I check MODA multiple times a day and haven't seen any "scam" posts. MODA is just as reliable if not more reliable than the big greys. If you do a reference check you should be fine. I don't think the the premium the big greys are charging is providing any extra security.

Well I don’t check it everyday. But this was on moda last night. I continued scrolling and saw another 1-2 posts about scams and also comments on posts. Now, I’d love for you to show me one post claiming DavidSW or Takuya scammed someone out of their watch. I’ve never seen such a thing around here with the bigger greys.








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[GW44]

Originally Posted by anx21

Going to assume you’re just unfamiliar with that group and are not being obtuse - the original AP box is included, I had to crop the last photo in the album because of TRF image size limitations. The condition is genuinely new with 0 scratches, the leather strap is included in the sale as well. The price is USD, the MSRP w/o tax here is ~42000, add ~10% sales tax and you’re at the asking. As for no new warranty card on a brand new watch, I’ll let you guess the reason (maybe take a look at the “sold my diver now what” post on this forum ;)

For “obtuse” posts, maybe try reading your own reply once again….

I based my own reply on the screen grab you put up that had information missing, so I asked some legitimate questions which you’ve now answered. Thank you.

Your point may be right about the missing warranty card, or you might not…..and perhaps it’s just gone and therefore impacts the value considerably.

Personally I find it pretty depressing that this whole thread finds it’s way into the AP section after many similar ones in the Rolex General Discussion were closed as being in direct contravention of TRF rules on price/market debate.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=635693

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=263244

Another problem with these threads and their argumentative/negative tone is that they debase the whole watch hobby and, especially here in the AP section, seem to have turned off valued and well established members who have ceased to contribute over the last few months…..

Shame

[aa909]

Originally Posted by GW44

For “obtuse” posts, maybe try reading your own reply once again….

I based my own reply on the screen grab you put up that had information missing, so I asked some legitimate questions which you’ve now answered. Thank you.

Your point may be right about the missing warranty card, or you might not…..and perhaps it’s just gone and therefore impacts the value considerably.

Personally I find it pretty depressing that this whole thread finds it’s way into the AP section after many similar ones in the Rolex General Discussion were closed as being in direct contravention of TRF rules on price/market debate.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=635693

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=263244

Another problem with these threads and their argumentative/negative tone is that they debase the whole watch hobby and, especially here in the AP section, seem to have turned off valued and well established members who have ceased to contribute over the last few months…..

Shame

I agree there shouldn't be name calling or insults flying around. But I find it surprising that one would dismiss the value in this thread. The insights regarding grey market trends has real world implications for watch enthusiasts like us who are hoping for a return to normalcy after 2 insane years of inflated prices. What we've collectively shared in this thread factually supports that we should all be getting more calls from ADs and Boutiques in 2023 and 2024

[gretch6364]

Originally Posted by aa909

we should all be getting more calls from ADs and Boutiques in 2023 and 2024

Come on Jumbo!!

[77T]

RE: Moda, listings…and even trusted sellers can get their accounts hacked or cloned.

Usually the person doing such things is the criminal, not the well-known trusted name in the listing.


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[s14roller]

Originally Posted by GW44

For “obtuse” posts, maybe try reading your own reply once again….

I based my own reply on the screen grab you put up that had information missing, so I asked some legitimate questions which you’ve now answered. Thank you.

Your point may be right about the missing warranty card, or you might not…..and perhaps it’s just gone and therefore impacts the value considerably.

Personally I find it pretty depressing that this whole thread finds it’s way into the AP section after many similar ones in the Rolex General Discussion were closed as being in direct contravention of TRF rules on price/market debate.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=635693

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=263244

Another problem with these threads and their argumentative/negative tone is that they debase the whole watch hobby and, especially here in the AP section, seem to have turned off valued and well established members who have ceased to contribute over the last few months…..

Shame

Agreed. It’s mostly from newer members who seem to be bitter about the situation and not getting pieces.

As for that watch group, frankly, it operates more like what the diamond district reminds me of. These watches are purely treated as a way to make money in the cheapest way possible. Worked on by their Joe Smith “watchmaker” down the street. Here’s a popular seller selling an AP and comments from members saying the issues aren’t a big deal lol:

https://imgur.com/a/hj4lgQb

But hey, it seems B&P also don’t matter either to these folks

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

Well I don’t check it everyday. But this was on moda last night. I continued scrolling and saw another 1-2 posts about scams and also comments on posts. Now, I’d love for you to show me one post claiming DavidSW or Takuya scammed someone out of their watch. I’ve never seen such a thing around here with the bigger greys.








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Just took a look at the thread in MODA and seems like this guy did NOT do a reference check because he had worked with this person in the past. This is a unique one since the seemingly had good dealings before this. However, this could have been avoided had he used the escrow service MODA offers.

There may be no scam stories from some of the big grey guys (I have purchased from Takuya and couldn't imagine him pulling something like that) but I still stick by my statement that MODA is just as safe (if you do reference checks and take advantage of their escrow service).

Is there really a rule on TRF that state we can't talk about the current state of the watch market/prices? Seems odd.

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by psm11

Just took a look at the thread in MODA and seems like this guy did NOT do a reference check because he had worked with this person in the past. This is a unique one since the seemingly had good dealings before this. However, this could have been avoided had he used the escrow service MODA offers.

There may be no scam stories from some of the big grey guys (I have purchased from Takuya and couldn't imagine him pulling something like that) but I still stick by my statement that MODA is just as safe (if you do reference checks and take advantage of their escrow service).

Is there really a rule on TRF that state we can't talk about the current state of the watch market/prices? Seems odd.

Lol I can find more posts and we could do this all day. But That’s totally fine. I respect your opinion, and we we are both entitled to disagree about the subject.
You can shop on moda. But If I ever decided to buy grey, I wouldn’t buy from someone via a FB account and group: A. When you are a big and known business, you have a reputation to maintain. I feel as the big greys at least have the facilities and capabilities of making sure you are getting what you paid for, and they would very much care to continue getting high ratings and positive feedback from clients which will possibly shop with them again. B. If things go sideways, it’s WAY easier taking legal action against an established business (that you have all of their ROC and other information) rather than chase a FB account which can vanish overnight.

However, I have to add I enjoy the comments they leave on each other’s posts a lot. Very amusing

That’s my 2 cents.


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[Mini2]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

My method is once I start to see more inventory in stores, that’s when you know prices will also drop on the secondary market, as a whole. And this week I saw that with my own eyes. A Polar, milgauss, air-king and a few DJs available in the store I was at. I asked about lists and they opened them currently only for two-tone pieces (including subs and Daytona’s). As I recall all these models were the last ones to be snatched before things became impossible. This store has been with empty display cases or just for exhibition pieces for years. So to answer your question, that’s my own real indication. I never really trusted grey market prices at any point of time anyways.
I share the same feelings as you about prices and watches meant to be worn by real enthusiasts, rather than “investors”. Hopefully we will all get the pieces we wanted for years and couldn’t.

And I think there was a misunderstanding, I wasn’t talking about the ROO mentioned above. I was talking about Daytonas and RO’s which I see the prices on moda vs the big greys. That’s all.


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Some decent availability at your AD

[Mini2]

Was in harrods this afternoon, 3 Codes were available.

[psm11]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

Lol I can find more posts and we could do this all day. But That’s totally fine. I respect your opinion, and we we are both entitled to disagree about the subject.
You can shop on moda. But If I ever decided to buy grey, I wouldn’t buy from someone via a FB account and group: A. When you are a big and known business, you have a reputation to maintain. I feel as the big greys at least have the facilities and capabilities of making sure you are getting what you paid for, and they would very much care to continue getting high ratings and positive feedback from clients which will possibly shop with them again. B. If things go sideways, it’s WAY easier taking legal action against an established business (that you have all of their ROC and other information) rather than chase a FB account which can vanish overnight.

However, I have to add I enjoy the comments they leave on each other’s posts a lot. Very amusing

That’s my 2 cents.


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I agree with a lot of what you say and I was not intending this to be adversarial. I would love to buy from the big grey guys but their prices right now are way out of touch with the market. Perhaps as prices continue to fall places like DavidSW will adjust and make it more palatable for me to buy from them.

Yes the comments sometimes are bit much (esp the listing that get inundated with “so cheap” comments or “this is an amazing deal for this piece” trying to spin like the dealer isn’t having to adjust the price to market).

I think the big take away from all this is that if things continue how they are all of use will have multiple options as to how we get the piece we want (and at a reasonable price).

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by psm11

I agree with a lot of what you say and I was not intending this to be adversarial. I would love to buy from the big grey guys but their prices right now are way out of touch with the market. Perhaps as prices continue to fall places like DavidSW will adjust and make it more palatable for me to buy from them.

Yes the comments sometimes are bit much (esp the listing that get inundated with “so cheap” comments or “this is an amazing deal for this piece” trying to spin like the dealer isn’t having to adjust the price to market).

I think the big take away from all this is that if things continue how they are all of use will have multiple options as to how we get the piece we want (and at a reasonable price).

Agreed. I hope so too


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[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by Mini2

Was in harrods this afternoon, 3 Codes were available.

Which ones @Mini2? (Serious question)

Got USD and CHF, want VAT refund shopping.

[conkers]

Originally Posted by GW44

Another problem with these threads and their argumentative/negative tone is that they debase the whole watch hobby and, especially here in the AP section, seem to have turned off valued and well established members who have ceased to contribute over the last few months…..

Shame

Couldn't agree more. Instead of spending time debating prices and direction of travel, I am fully focused on actively sharpening my pencil and striking some very interesting deals for pieces!

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by conkers

Couldn't agree more. Instead of spending time debating prices and direction of travel, I am fully focused on actively sharpening my pencil and striking some very interesting deals for pieces!

Shhh!!! Please don’t encourage anyone else to buy until I am done buying please…lol. It’s hard enough to compete against Conkers at a boutique and also in the open market! I need a handicap sir.

[conkers]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Shhh!!! Please don’t encourage anyone else to buy until I am done buying please…lol. It’s hard enough to compete against Conkers at a boutique and also in the open market! I need a handicap sir.

Don’t worry I am only going after pretty “off piste” stuff!

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Which ones @Mini2? (Serious question)

Got USD and CHF, want VAT refund shopping.

x1 chrono
x2 non chrono (one of which was the blue dial)

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Which ones @Mini2? (Serious question)

Got USD and CHF, want VAT refund shopping.

Vat free shopping has been scrapped TODAY by our goverment however its possible if you don't mind the item being posted back direct to your home in HK

[911AP]

Originally Posted by GW44

As ever with threads like this the devil is really in the detail........

So with that 2021 15500OR its without warranty card (but "new, archives papers") and by the look of it not supplied with the OEM strap but a Rubber one. Also listing says "with box" but not "original box"

What currency is that 46,500 in please.......and vs. MSRP in the same region?

Also condition is unknown from what you posted/linked to as well....

Originally Posted by dmash

Highly doubt you're getting a response, he's gotten realllyyyy quiet in the last 10 days after he was on about how there's this incredible demand to keep AP at 2-3x MSRP. He still never responded to this post I asked him about below either

Sealed/NEW 50th RO is going for only a 50% premium now. 15500 at essentially MSRP + tax. and essentially zero sign we've touched a bottom. 2-3x MSRP is laughable, only a schmuck would pay that right now, just facts.

I don't need to respond. I gave up arguing when you started making baseless claims and assumptions. Not worth it. As someone else already pointed out above. The devil is in the details. No papers. On a rubber strap. What is the currency? What is the location? People need to stop posting abstract things and start showing the actual proof. I don't rely on watchcharts, but they do have some sales data on there. It's still showing the 15500 at double retail selling with regular dials with some reported sales a couple months ago.

Again......just post where your info is coming from, its very simple...Let it speak for itself.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I don't need to respond. I gave up arguing when you started making baseless claims and assumptions. Not worth it. As someone else already pointed out above. The devil is in the details. No papers. On a rubber strap. What is the currency? What is the location? People need to stop posting abstract things and start showing the actual proof. I don't rely on watchcharts, but they do have some sales data on there. It's still showing the 15500 at double retail selling with regular dials with some reported sales a couple months ago.

Again......just post where your info is coming from, its very simple...Let it speak for itself.

Man what are you even talking about? Even on Chrono24, 15500s aren’t touching double retail (BNIB, full set).

Mind you Chrono is not a reliable indicator of the market, MODA is (for a plethora of reasons that have been discussed as nauseam in this chat). On Moda, BNIB full set have been going in the 30s and trending lower.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by 911AP

I don't need to respond. I gave up arguing when you started making baseless claims and assumptions. Not worth it. As someone else already pointed out above. The devil is in the details. No papers. On a rubber strap. What is the currency? What is the location? People need to stop posting abstract things and start showing the actual proof. I don't rely on watchcharts, but they do have some sales data on there. It's still showing the 15500 at double retail selling with regular dials with some reported sales a couple months ago.

Again......just post where your info is coming from, its very simple...Let it speak for itself.

[Bpan]

Blue dial 15500, posted 15 minutes ago